After 2022’s devastating heat waves and wildfires, scientists warn of even hotter year

By Mehmet Solmaz

BIRMINGHAM, England (AA) - This year will be warmer than last year, and one of the hottest on record, Britain’s Meteorological Office has forecast. Predictions suggest it will be the 10th year in a row the global temperature is at least 1C above average.

Scientific evidence shows that climate change is driving up global temperatures. In July, the UK recorded its hottest temperature ever, with the mercury hitting 40.2C (104.3F) at Heathrow Airport. The heat wave also sparked bushfires in and around London, setting houses ablaze.

Some countries across Europe had been struggling to put out wildfires and at times have been criticized by activists for not doing enough to combat the climate crisis and its effects.

Although the general take is that the world is heading towards a warmer year, scientists are professionally cautious when asked how the coming summer will be.

Meteorologist Andy Hill told Anadolu Agency that it is not possible to give a confident forecast but also cited a report by the American Meteorological Society which points to changes in the monthly average to understand that 2023 will see the world entering an El Nino, a periodic event that involves above-average sea-surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific.

- 2023 to be one of the hottest years on record

The Meteorological Office, the United Kingdom's national weather service, told Anadolu Agency that forecasting the UK’s summer temperatures “simply isn’t possible at this range” but recommended paying attention to their annual global temperature forecast for 2023, which suggests that this year will be one of the Earth’s hottest on record.

The Met Office’s Nick Dunstone, who has led the 2023 global temperature forecast, said: “The global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Nina – where cooler than average sea-surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific.

“For (the) next year, our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with a La Nina state, with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific. This shift is likely to lead to global temperatures in 2023 being warmer than 2022.”

According to Hill, there is a good public attachment and response to the UK Met Office's warnings.

“The word was spread efficiently due to its record-breaking status and is talked about by many people,” he said.

- Europe sees record warm weather in winter

Speaking to Anadolu Agency, Maximiliano Herrera, a meteorologist who focuses on climate data, agreed that the probability of warmer-than-average conditions occurring is greater than for cooler conditions.

According to data collected by Herrera, just this month the warmest January day ever was recorded in at least eight European countries, including Poland, Denmark, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Belarus, Lithuania, and Latvia.

In Korbielow, Poland, the temperature hit 19C (66F) – a temperature the village is more used to in May and 18 degrees above the annual average for January. In other parts of the continent, local records were broken at thousands of measuring stations, Herrera said.

Herrera believes some governments are effectively combatting the climate crisis more than others, but he also has concerns about others.

“We must take climate change seriously,” he warned.

Bilbao, Spain, which lost thousands of hectares to wildfires last summer, recorded a temperature of 25.1C (77F) in the first week of January, more than 10 degrees above average.

While this gave people the opportunity to enjoy the warm water, those who planned skiing faced frustrations, with many European ski regions suffering from sparse snowfall and melting slopes.