ANALYSIS - Dangers awaiting the peace process in Libya

By Ufuk Necat Tasci

[Ufuk Necat Tasci, who received his master's degree from Bournemouth University of England and continues his PhD at the Department of International Relations in Istanbul Medeniyet University, is working at TRT World and continues his research on Libya.]

ISTANBUL (AA) - The Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, launched by the United Nations (UN) in late 2020 in Libya, reached a consensus to establish the mechanism for electing the country’s executive authority representatives. Efforts to bring opposing parties together in Libya began surfacing in the international press and agenda as well, especially at the beginning of November. It’s been decided to hold the general elections in Libya on Dec. 24, 2021, which will coincide with the country’s Independence Day, under the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum.

Despite the putschist Khalifa Haftar’s desire to sabotage the process and his persistent attempts to break the permanent ceasefire agreement signed between the Libyan parties as a result of the 5+5 Joint Military Commission meetings held in Geneva on October 19-23, some of the regional and international actors that have been involved in the process, but especially the Libyan people, have declared that they would stand behind this process.

Lastly, the names of the people whose applications were accepted for the prime minister position and the three-person presidential council, which will take the country to the elections in Libya, were published by the UN on Jan. 30. The country is expected to hold the elections with the 3 members of the presidential council, who will be selected out of the 24 candidates, and the president of the transitional government, who will be selected out of the 21 candidates. In this regard, those who’re attending the meetings in Switzerland will participate in voting under the auspices of the UN for the selection of these figures next week.

Considering that the presidential council will have critical authority in Libya in areas such as the selection of the Chief of General Staff and the appointments to state institutions, it is clear how meticulously these selections must be made. Although this process was perceived to be an important move for establishing peace in Libya since its beginning, many groups in the country are aware that the newly selected individuals may trigger new conflicts. One of the most prominent recent examples of this is Aguila Saleh (who is a long-standing supporter of the putschist general Hafter) being included in the list and the UN’s approval of his application to the presidential council.

International actors whose position and activities in Libya have long been questionable, including the UN and the European Union (EU) member states, have already begun to gauge how they would be included in the new political process in Libya. Having an opportunistic approach towards the political process in Libya; France and Egypt at one point deviate from the paths of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Russia, two of the most notorious supporters of the putschist general Haftar. However, it would not be too absurd to state that this could actually be considered an obligation for them. The cooperation between Hafter and these two countries, whose plans on the putschist general were foiled by Turkey’s legitimate support for Libya’s UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), as well as their record in Libya, seems to have forced them to partake in an equation with many variables in the new process. In fact, the putschist general’s attitude towards the political process, as well as the war crimes that were discovered (with the mass graves found in the regions that GNA took back from Hafter with Turkey’s support) would put France, Egypt and the UAE in big trouble in the international arena, even with an objective investigation and interrogation.

While it’s not possible to explain thoroughly in such a short analysis the destructive roles of countries such as France, Russia, Egypt and the UAE in Libya; the many events that have surfaced in the recent years, and especially continuing despite the recent peace talks, would be enough to reveal that these countries aren’t even the last actors to have a word on the Libya issue. [1]

- Illegal activities of France, Egypt, Russia and UAE in Libya

At first, question marks regarding the three French spies found in a helicopter that crashed in Benghazi, who were supporting Hafter in disguise, had caught the attention of the international community in 2016. The French administration has a gloomy past in Libya from many angles; from the public statement of support of the French Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian, who’s known to be the architect of the French foreign policy of the Macron administration, regarding the airstrikes carried out by Egypt targeting GNA to the Pentagon investigation which revealed that it was France who handed over to Haftar the ‘anti-tank missiles’ which cost $170,000 each and are supplied exclusively by the United States to its close allies, in 2019. [2] In fact, as many media outlets have previously revealed, [3] France is a country that provides intelligence and military aid to Haftar and trains his militias.

Even though Khalifa Haftar had the support of countries such as France, Egypt and the UAE with his secular discourse and attitude, as well as his image of fighting against DAESH, the structure of the armed militant groups affiliated with the putschist general Haftar clearly demonstrate the extent of the war crimes he and his affiliates could commit. The so-called ‘secular’ armed forces of Haftar are composed of a very complex and dark structure that includes; the al-Kani family who are active in the region and thought to be responsible of the mass graves found in Tarhuna (who were also recently blacklisted by the United States), the Wagner Group managed behind closed doors by Yevgeny Prigozhin (who’s known to be a close friend of Putin), the Janjaweed militants who’ve been involved in numerous war crimes in Sudan and led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (who’s also known as “Hemetti”), and, even some armed predecessor groups that consider opposing Haftar to be idolatry (shirk). [4]

Considering this issue, another development that’s yet emerged towards the end of December 2020 once again revealed the hypocrisy of France in their Libya policy and how much of a partner they were to Haftar in his war crimes. According to the allegations, Russia’s military shipments to Libya, through the Syrian regime, the Russian Wagner Group and the armed forces in Syria (among which were ex-DAESH members), were made using a Syria-based private airline company via flights from Damascus to Benghazi.

France and the UAE, on the other hand, have important roles in these shipments organized for supporting Hafter. This is because the Benina International Airport in Benghazi is of key importance for the support provided to Haftar by these countries, as the UN Special Representative of GNA Guma El-Gamaty recently stated. This operation carried out by Russia using these two airports and a private airline company based in Damascus [5] was allegedly ignored by France and the UAE, both of which having had influence near the Benina International Airport for years. In addition, the representatives of GNA have also repeatedly stated that the UAE is funding these shipments and mercenaries. As one would remember, the leader of GNA, Fayez al-Sarraj, had previously criticized France harshly for supporting Haftar, a dictator and a putschist.

As for the UAE, another country that’s been one of the biggest supporters of the putschist Haftar from the very beginning, the UAE's record in the Libyan civil war is, at the least, just as long as France’s. The financial funding from the UAE, the offering to the putschist Haftar of the Wing Loong II unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) used in the airstrikes against Tripoli, the installation of the Russian-made Pantsir air defense systems at the Al Jufra Airbase (which has critical importance) near the town of Garyan, the military bases built for supporting Haftar since 2017, and the secret supplying of Haftar with 11,000 tons of aircraft fuel (worth $5 million) in April last year is only part of this long record. [6]

As one may recall, one of the most dramatic events which the UAE was a part of took place on January 4, 2020. Dozens of innocent and unarmed Libyan teenagers were killed in a drone attack conducted by the putschist Haftar against 50 unarmed children aged 15-16 who were training at a military academy affiliated to GNA in Tripoli. According to the reports, the UAVs supplied by the UAE to Haftar were used in the attack.

While countries such as Egypt and France have shifted strategies by laying emphasis on the political process at this period; the UAE, unlike France and Egypt, has recently avoided expressing definite opinions regarding the political process and the political future of Libya (likely due to its concerns about the future of its potential dictator who it has invested so much in). The UAE, who received many comments regarding its possibility of preparing

The al-Sisi administration, which dismissed in a military coup Egypt’s first elected president, Mohamed Morsi, in 2013, became another country that strongly supports the putschist Haftar in the process, with Haftar getting the approval of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Sisi, who follows policies that are in line with those of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, had expressed that he wanted to limit the recent gains of GNA with the support of Turkey, against Hafter, to the region up to Sirte. He declared any operations against this region his ‘redline’ and made his attitude against GNA crystal clear, implying that he would be militarily intervening in Libya through the prominent figure of the Tobruk-centered parliament, Aguila Saleh, as well. In addition, he actively used their long border with Libya for providing logistical and military aid to Haftar. Encouraged by these moves from Egypt, the putschist Haftar, who was once referred to as “the Sisi of Libya”, has crossed the line, to the point of threatening Turkish soldiers and Turkey with war in the past few months. Well, then, why did France, whose position in Libya is so problematic and uncertain, felt the need to express its support for the democratic process at last; and on the other hand, how did Egypt break one of its taboos and come to the point of meeting with GNA recently? [7]

Considering the aforementioned issues, it seems that there are no alternatives left for this duo clearly, and this is because what forces them to take such positions is their attitude towards the crimes committed against humanity by the putschist Haftar and the armed militant groups affiliated with him, as well as their attitude towards the official government recognized by the UN and the international public. Otherwise, the support they give to Khalifa Haftar, who could never have a place in a scenario where democratic elections are held in Libya, and their cooperation with him on the crimes he’s committed will render them ineffective in the country. Because, on the other hand, the investigation started by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against these accusations continues.

As a NATO, UN Security Council (UNSC) and EU member, France seems to have no alternative but to support a political figure, most likely coming out from GNA, who will be accepted by Egypt and other collaborating countries.

If figures such as Aguila Saleh, who had been in cooperation with Haftar for a long time, can’t find themselves room in key positions (such as in the presidential council and the prime minister), this will trim the influence of France in Libya. Particularly, the French administration, who has been ignoring Russia's recent military support in favor of Haftar alongside the UAE, and increasing its bilateral talks with the Russian President Vladimir Putin on Libya, has a limited number of scenarios left in case of a likely successful, or unsuccessful political process. Either a legitimate figure that is not worn out will be supported in case of a successful political process, or in a failed scenario, a process that can be continued with Haftar will be switched to.

Russia has already taken the most crucial step in its quest for establishing its presence in warm waters through Syria, and has in part achieved its long-standing goal via the military bases it has built in the Mediterranean. France, a member of NATO, not protesting Russia, which has strengthened its position in the Mediterranean with its military presence in Sirte and Jufra, shows that the French administration can resort to any means to not lose its influence in Libya.

In this context, France will naturally want to have the option of switching to potential candidates among GNA who can get the support of many segments, in addition to its policies on Libya so far. It seems likely that long-time supporters of Haftar such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE will resort to similar scenarios. Particularly, it was sort of indicated that Egypt would be moving forward in a more coordinated manner with France at this point, with the highest order of merit “Legion d’honneur” which Macron presented to Sisi during his visit to Paris in December.

In addition, certain prominent figures from GNA meeting with the French Foreign Minister Le Drian in Paris last November, and this event being followed by the meetings held on “security” between individuals from GNA and the committee sent from Egypt, undoubtedly raise the expectations regarding the possible scenarios mentioned. In fact, some of these individuals, who started to get in touch with France and Egypt, have officially secured their spots in the list published by the UN on Saturday.

- Hafter, Aguila Saleh and process before UN

Although the process carried out before the UN is interpreted to be promising for many UN's shortcomings in imposing sanctions on Haftar's attacks against GNA and war crimes shouldn’t be forgotten. The Libya process is becoming suspicious, especially in the shadow of certain claims that have emerged recently. Rumors are circulating that the putschist general Hafter is working on getting Aguila Saleh to lead the interim administration that will take the country to the elections before the UN. Since it’s not possible for him to take part in the political process, Hafter won’t even be able to roam freely in Libya unless the figures who have good relations with him are included in this process.

In this context, the fact that Saleh's name - even if it couldn’t be chosen - was included in the list approved by the UN for the presidential council nominations alone is an indicator of Brussels’ weakness in its Libya policy. Saleh, who had previously made attempts for Egypt to militarily intervene in Libya and stop GNA, is a figure who didn’t mind stating that his relationship with the putschist general is “above all official relations” when it was claimed that there were problems between him and Haftar. He was also one of the leading candidates who was considered for preparation for the political process in Libya by countries such as Egypt and France following Haftar's losses against GNA. In fact, Saleh, who did not speak up against Haftar's bloody actions and war crimes [8], became known as ”Haftar in a suit”.

On the one hand, the ambivalent attitudes of France, Egypt and the UN in Libya, and on the other, the demands for the engagement of certain figures, who are known to be close to Haftar, in the ongoing negotiations show us that this process can contain not only hope, but also new chaos. In addition, certain Libyan activists have recently claimed that France is trying to relocate the capital of the country from Tripoli to Sirte, where the Russian Wagner Group mercenaries are very influential. According to these allegations, it is planned to open a coastal road extending from Sirte to Tripoli and Misrata - that is, right in the middle of Russia's sphere of influence - with this initiative, which is also backed by Germany. Though it has been revealed that the Russian Wagner Group and the illegal groups affiliated to Haftar have dug miles of trenches in Sirte in recent weeks, it seems that France's lobbying activities in this direction will also be another subject of discussion.

If the election and the administration to be established in Libya are aimed to be truly independent and democratic; Hafter, Aguila Saleh, or anyone who somehow crossed paths with the putschist general against GNA must be not included in the interim administration. Likewise, it has become an abundantly clear necessity for the UN to not include in the political process any figure who’s not only opposed the legitimate government it recognizes (GNA), but also resorted to bloody moves against it, and, to envision a future through legitimate profiles and politicians with a clean record. Likewise, the last-minute efforts of some countries with very long records in Libya to take part in the political process through some names from GNA must be watched out for. Analyzing the list published by the UN, different candidates from GNA competing against each other for the role of prime minister confirms this.

The UN's Libya test will either render its already problematic and criticized position and image even more unreliable in problems in other regions, or the UN will once again convince the world of the existence of an international power that could end this chaos, taking the right steps by learning from its mistakes. The passive attitude of the UN, who’d previously demanded the withdrawal of mercenaries from Libya, against the Wagner Group and the illegal armed militant groups affiliated with Haftar, as well as the local and international actors who haven’t stopped their attacks against the government it recognizes (GNA), is unfortunately evident.

The liability of a process where countries such as France, Russia, Egypt and the UAE aren’t sanctioned for what they have done, but are daring to play a part in the political process, would cause further questioning of the UN in this context. Dark figures such as Aguila Saleh, whose candidacies were accepted by the UN on January 30, Saturday, emerge as new elements that prevent us from being optimistic about the UN's vision of the future in Libya in the short and medium-term.

[1] https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/libyan-warlord-khalifa-haftar-threatens-turkey-with-war-42683

[2] https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/france-s-underhand-tactics-have-made-things-in-libya-worse-37327

[3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/4/23/armed-men-crossing-from-libya-alleged-to-be-french-spies

[4] https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/the-key-militias-who-fight-alongside-haftar-in-libya-36037

[5] https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/how-the-uae-russia-and-france-have-teamed-up-in-libya-42583

[6] https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/turkey-uae-spat-how-the-rogue-gulf-state-sowed-chaos-in-the-middle-east-35937

[7] https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/what-prompted-egypt-to-make-its-first-diplomatic-contact-with-libya-s-gna-42753

[8] https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/why-is-aguila-saleh-justifying-an-egyptian-military-intervention-in-libya-37596