ANALYSIS - Separatist Serb nationalism threatens peace, stability in Western Balkans

By Irfan Kaya Ulger

The author is a member of the Department of International Relations, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Kocaeli University.

ANKARA (AA) - Milorad Dodik, the Serbian member of the Presidential Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the leader of Republika Srpska, continues to make statements that threaten the country's territorial integrity. Dodik, one of the leading figures guiding the politics of Bosnian Serbs since 2006, repeated in a stronger way last week his threat that the Republika Srpska (RS), one of the two entities in Bosnia and Herzegovina, would leave the Federation. Dodik announced that new legislation would be introduced in the Bosnian Serb Parliament on more than hundred issues. He said that these motions include withdrawing from the central government bodies related to intelligence, defense, judiciary, tax, and customs and that they would form their own defense forces in the Republika Srpska. [1]

It is known that Dodik made similar statements before and often expressed the view that a referendum should be held in Republika Srpska. For example in 2013, Dodik said Bosnian Serbs did not want to remain in Bosnia and Herzegovina. [2] In March 2020, he repeated this opinion and made a statement saying: "Goodbye Bosnia, hello independent Serbia." [3]

- Bosnia and Herzegovina faces danger of division

The Peace Implementation Council (PIC), which operates in Sarajevo, is responsible for maintaining the political stability provided for by the Dayton Treaty in the country. The routine declarations issued by the council against Dodik's provocations argue that it is unacceptable for Bosnian Serbs to change the status quo on their own. However, these statements by the council are important as they reflect the common opinion of countries such as the US, France, Germany, and Italy. Even the High Representative of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, is uneasy about Dodik's recent statements and the tension they caused. In this context, it was noted in the latest report sent by Schmidt to the UN that the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina is in danger of a serious split.

The developments that have taken place are also being followed with great concern by the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Many Bosniaks who live in the region and lost their relatives in the Srebrenica massacre think that what is happening today are the most dangerous developments since the 1990s. [4] A statement by the Friends of Bosnia and Herzegovina Foundation in Turkey also expressed concern on Nov. 2 that if Bosnian Serbs form a separate army, this could lead to new attacks and conflicts in the Western Balkans.

- Serb nationalism caused breakup of Yugoslavia

It should be remembered that Serb nationalism caused the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia. In the mid-1980s, then-President of Serbia Slobodan Milosovic stoked nationalism in the former Yugoslavia and organized solidarity demonstrations with Kosovo Serbs in the country's major cities. On the one hand, Milosevic was trying to spread the myth that Kosovo was the homeland of the Serbs, while on the other hand, he dreamt of a Yugoslavia in which the Serbs, who were not properly represented in the administration during the reign of Tito, would be in a dominant position.

Incitement by Serb nationalists brought Catholic nations like Slovenia and Croatia closer to Europe, while leaving Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia in a dilemma. Alarmed by Serbian hegemony, Slovenia and Croatia declared independence in July 1991. The Serbian-Croatian conflict that began after this decision lasted for six months and in 1992, a cease-fire mediated by the EU was signed in Brioni. Macedonia declared independence in November as the conflict continued. The Federal Army, which was under Serb control, was unable to intervene in Macedonia's decision for independence. The conflict prevention force of about 2,000 deployed by former US President Bill Clinton in Macedonia had had a deterring effect on Milosevic.

The clashes that began following the independence decision in Sarajevo in the spring of 1992 lasted for three-and-a-half years. The Bosniaks were the only victims of the embargo imposed to prevent bloody conflicts in the middle of Europe. Neighther the Croats nor the Serbs were affected by this embargo. The Germans supported the Croats, as did the Russians and Greeks the Serbs. The clashes, in which 250,000 people lost their lives, finally ended upon the initiative of the US.

- Dayton Agreement and dead ends

The Dayton Peace Agreement, signed in December 1995, divided the country into two political units. The first of these was called the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the second was the Republika Srpska. The treaty also provided for the deployment of a 60,000-strong peacekeeping force under UN supervision to ensure peace and stability in the country. The Dayton Agreement also contained detailed provisions on the constitution and the administrative and legal structure of the country. During the decision-making process, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska were recognized as equal in status, as well. A decision on any issue in the country needed the consent of both entities. Due to this complex structure, Bosnia and Herzegovina was able neither to advance its relations with the EU as a candidate country, nor make a decision on joining NATO to ensure its territorial integrity. The Bosnian Serbs were limiting Bosnia and Herzegovina's mobility on the basis of this right granted to them by the Dayton Agreement.

- Bosnian Serbs' separatist nationalism based on hidden fiction?

The Serb dream of "Greater Serbia" continued after the Dayton Agreement. Milosevic's provocations concerning Kosovo and his attempt at ethnic cleansing with the support of the Federal Army to resettle some of the Croatian Serbs in Kosovar villages led to the NATO intervention in 1999. Kosovo was governed by the international community under the umbrella of the UN, EU, and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) until 2008. On Feb. 17, 2008, Kosovo gained independence under a plan by former Finnish Prime Minister Martti Ahtisaari that also carried his name.

From 1999 to 2008, Serbia was affected by isolation and poverty caused by fanatical nationalism. It later entered into close relations with the EU, declaring its adherence to the principle of the immutability of borders. It began negotiations for full membership in 2014. The government of Serbia, bearing the status of a candidate EU country, is at least theoretically keeping its distance from the dream of Greater Serbia under the current conditions. It is common knowledge that Milorad Dodik blames the Belgrade administration and EU on occasion for not receiving the necessary support.

The leader of the Bosnian Serbs is engaged in a planned and decisive effort to break Republika Srpska out of Bosnia and Herzegovina, despite this violating the Dayton Treaty. The Peace Implementation Council is also worried about developments that could change the status quo. But on the other hand, the suspicion remains that Dodik's demands could be part of a secret plan.

At this point, it is necessary to note the paper titled, Western Balkans - A way forward, sent in the appendix of a letter by Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa to EU Council President Charles Michel in April 2021. [5] The paper, on which Michel made a statement that it was not an official document, included the ideas of "joining ... the Republika Srpska territory with Serbia," "joining the predominantly Croatian cantons in Bosnia and Herzegovina with Croatia," and "the unification of Kosovo and Albania" for peace and stability.

After the recent increase in Dodik's separatist and Serb nationalist provocations, it is normal for the question of whether such a fiction exists behind the scenes to come to people's minds. It should not be forgotten that such fictions were behind many political developments in the recent past.

[1] https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/03/bosnia-serbia-russia-secession-milorad-dodik-eu-us-nato/

[2] https://iwpr.net/global-voices/bosnian-serb-leaders-still-talking-secession

[3] https://www.rferl.org/a/goodbye-bosnia-serb-leader-dodik-reiterates-call-for-secession/30440100.html

[4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/5/bosnians-worried-push-to-create-serb-army-may-spark-violence

[5] https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2021/04/13/alleged-slovenian-proposal-for-a-peaceful-dissolution-of-bih-creates-controversy/

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency.

*Writing by Merve Berker