ANALYSIS - What next for Mosul?

By Saad Aldouri

- The writer is a research assistant with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank. His fields of expertise are Iraq and youth policy in the MENA region.

LONDON (AA) - We are approaching one month since the liberation of Mosul was announced by Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, and the overwhelming size of the challenge ahead to rebuild the city is beginning to loom large.

After a bruising eight-month battle to recapture Mosul, which has led to devastating destruction across the city, the task to rebuild livelihoods will be defining for the country and its political representatives. With many of Mosul’s 1.5 million population have yet to return to the city; the urgency of stabilizing and starting to rebuild is greater than ever.

Ensuring that security needs are met in Mosul and rebuilding the local population’s confidence in the security forces is the first major obstacle that must be overcome. Since the beginning of the campaign to reclaim territory from Daesh, there have been consistent fears over retribution, particularly from the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMFs), which have become an important component of the anti-Daesh forces in Iraq.

However, while there have been various reports of incidents taking place, the frequency of such retribution has been limited, with sectarian confrontations largely being avoided in Mosul. Significantly, the Mosul offensive was led by the Iraqi security forces, without involvement of the PMFs. Indeed, the work done by the Golden Division has earned significant local support through their efforts to protect civilians in Mosul as they worked through the city on foot.

Despite the morale boost of victory felt across the country, the question remains over whether sufficient political progress can be made in the local and national authorities to earn the confidence of local populations.

In this regard, upcoming elections will be important in assessing the ability of the Iraqi state system to be sufficiently inclusive in its governance. Political progress in stabilizing the country and reconstructing it will also determine to what extent Daesh will be defeated in the long term, as it seeks to revert to its insurgent tactics and cause damage and destruction across the country.

- Rebuilding Mosul

The destruction experienced in the battle to retake Mosul is difficult to overstate, with the urban warfare in Western Mosul causing particular devastation to buildings and infrastructure.

Rebuilding the city is a mammoth task that will take many years and will require billions of dollars in support, as well as strong coordination between the local authorities, national authorities and international donors. Given that Iraq has been plagued with issues surrounding corruption, mismanagement and security problems in delivering such services in the past, major efforts will have to be made by both the prime minister and his cabinet, as well as international actors, to ensure that these shortcomings are addressed.

Planning Minister Salman al-Jumaili recently announced plans for a 10-year reconstruction plan for Mosul and other areas liberated from Daesh. The cost of this plan is expected to be $100 billion, with the funds being sourced from domestic revenue, international lending and grants.

However, from the outset this plan seems ambitious given the country’s weak economic situation. The Iraqi economy still relies heavily on oil revenues and recorded a substantial deficit in 2016 estimated to be over 10 percent of GDP. As things stand, the Iraqi government will find it very difficult to reach the $100 billion target they have for reconstruction.

- The future of Daesh

Although Daesh has been pushed out of Mosul and almost all of its other territories in Iraq, it is by no means a dead entity in Iraq.

The social impact they have had over the past three years, as well as ongoing sectarian tensions and the group’s previous success in using insurgent tactics, means that their threat will endure for years to come as they start to return to asymmetric warfare.

Daesh’s history in Iraq since 2003 tells us that it is an adaptive and tactical organization; therefore we can expect that they will revert to their tried and tested method of terrorist and insurgent tactics.

With provincial and national elections approaching, Daesh will likely seek to cause as much disruption and damage as possible to ensure that any institutional processes and progress are thwarted. Key infrastructure elements will also continue to be targeted.

One such example is Mosul’s water infrastructure which has reportedly been booby-trapped by militants. Ensuring the security and stability of basic infrastructure services will be a vital safeguard against renewed unrest among local populations and help ensure the demise of Daesh in the long term.

The devastation in Mosul is clear for all to see, but the push by the Iraqi authorities to stabilize the city and begin the rebuilding process is of utmost importance at this critical stage. Beginning to implement some of the initial 26 construction projects that the Iraqi government has approved and re-establishing security will help build confidence among local populations and encourage the return of thousands of internally displaced people to Mosul.

*Opinions expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu Agency's editorial policy.