Debate on May's deal resumes before crucial Brexit vote

By Ahmet Gurhan Kartal

LONDON (AA) - Wednesday began five of the most crucial days ever for Britain's parliament as the debate on Prime Minister Theresa May’s EU withdrawal agreement resumed.

Coming to the end of a road almost two-and-a-half years after British voters narrowly decided in 2016 to leave the EU, the Brexit deal reached with the union will face a vote on Tuesday, Jan. 15, bringing the wrenching political saga to the brink of climax.

The vote was originally planned for Dec. 11, but May postponed it for more than a month as she foresaw a heavy defeat in the House.

MPs now have five days of fiery debate on the deal, which the prime minister has underlined as the only deal possible. She said the alternative to her deal would be leaving the EU without a deal. The debate will be followed by one of the most critical votes in the history of the U.K.

- The numbers

May needs the support of 320 MPs to have her deal voted through the House of Commons.

The total number of seats in the House is 650.

However, there are only 639 eligible votes, as Speaker John Bercow and his three deputies, as well as seven Sinn Fein MPs, will not cast ballots.

So the deal effectively needs the votes of at least 329 members.

- How will the parties vote?

- Conservative Party

The leading party has 316 votes in the House but not all of them are expected to vote in favor of the deal.

May on Tuesday suffered a humiliating defeat after both ruling Conservative and main opposition Labour MPs voted to strengthen parliament’s hand in heading off a no-deal Brexit.

A cross-party group of MPs voted 303-296 in favor of an amendment to a bill submitted by Labour MP Yvette Cooper to curb government powers to bypass parliament should Britain crash out of the EU without a deal.

Twenty Tory MPs defied the government whip to support Cooper’s amendment.

- Labour Party

Led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Party currently holds 257 seats in the House of Commons. Corbyn has repeatedly said they would vote against May’s deal.

- Scottish National Party

The Scottish National Party (SNP) said the deal was not in the best interest of the Scottish people and businesses and so they will not back the deal. The SNP has 35 MPs.

- Liberal Democrats

The pro-EU party made clear that there would be a party whip to vote against the deal. It holds 11 seats.

- Democratic Unionist Party

Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the government’s de facto partners since May lost a parliament majority in 2017 snap elections, also said they would vote against the deal, as they are unhappy about its backstop article.

The DUP votes are crucial even if all Tory MPs vote in favor of the deal, as May will need at least four of the Northern Irish party’s votes.

- What next?

The crucial vote is set to be held on Jan. 15, leaving the U.K. government with little time to consider fresh talks with the EU ahead of the March 29 scheduled exit date.

Scenarios should May suffer a defeat next week include her resignation, snap elections, or a public referendum on the deal.

With 79 days left before the U.K.’s exit, the daunting option of a no-deal Brexit is also growing stronger, as EU officials have said there will be no changes to the deal no matter how parliament votes.

The U.K. is set to leave the bloc on March 29 after more than 40 years of membership.