FOR SUNDAY DIARY - Ongoing conflict in Sudan is 'game changer,' says expert

By Zehra Nur Duz

ANKARA (AA) — The ongoing fighting that has rocked Sudan as clashes continue between the army and a paramilitary group is a "game changer," according to a Sudanese political analyst.

“The recent conflict will certainly have real and deep implications on the future political process, and if it is to start anytime soon, new players must come forward, especially those who were excluded before, despite the fact that they are representing the vast majority of the wider political spectrum, plus they are more acceptable to the silent majority,” Elsadig Elfaqih, a former Sudanese diplomat and a professor at Sakarya University's Middle East Institute, told Anadolu in an interview over the phone.

Fighting between two rival generals — Sudanese army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo — broke out on April 15, leaving more than 550 people dead.

A disagreement has been fomenting in recent months between the two sides concerning the integration of the RSF into the armed forces, which is a key condition of Sudan's transition agreement with political groups.

Commenting on the possibility of civilian rule in the country in the near future, Elfaqih said the military had affirmed many times that it would hand power over to civilians.

"Their conditions rest on a much wider representation of all political forces in the country in order to form a transitional government, or going directly to elections," said Elfaqih, who specializes in political communication, international relations, and diplomacy.

He underlined that the other most difficult condition raised by the military was integrating the RSF to the armed forces.

- 'Military will not accept less than a total victory'

On possible scenarios to resolve the conflict, the professor said: "I don't think the military will accept less than a total victory, and a defeated RSF's leadership might not resort to any kind of a conducive negotiation."

"They're not equipped to navigate such terrain, or articulate any agreeable demands," Elfaqih argued.

He stressed that the RSF revolves around a family and has no institutional structure, which makes it difficult to conduct political business.

"In my opinion, the RSF does not think of any victory anymore and has not moved forward since its destructive first day. So, we haven't seen any progress since then," he said.

"They are just increasing the cost of the war, perhaps to ensure a safe escape for their leadership," according to Elfaqih.

While general indicators show that Sudan has passed the stage of great dangers of the Libyan or Yemeni model, still more is needed to ensure the safety of all citizens, he warned.

"From reading the observations of those who follow the development closely, I know that many neighborhoods in the city are moving closer to normal, and things are progressing in many respects," he said.

- What is background of conflict in Sudan?

The Sudanese people took to the streets in late 2018 when the ousted leader, Omar al-Bashir, raised the prices for some goods such as bread and fuel.

Sudan's military overthrew Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, ending his rule of 30 years.

The military later refused to hand over power.

After the coup, groups that had participated in the pro-democracy protests coalesced in the Forces of Freedom and Change, while members of the military formed the Sovereignty Council.

Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan became head of the council, with RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo as his deputy.

A semi-civilian government was formed with important portfolios, such as the Interior Ministry and Defense Ministry, controlled by the army.

Working under the shadow of the Sovereignty Council, Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok's government failed to run the country and stepped down.

The Sovereignty Council then engaged in a power struggle behind the scenes.

Al-Burhan and Dagalo applied certain policies to curtail each others' power.

Al-Burhan often advocated the unification of military forces under one umbrella, while Dagalo strongly opposed this, believing it would reduce his clout.

The military signed a "framework agreement" with dozens of civilian leaders in December 2022. This deal requires the military and armed groups to unify, unsettling Dagalo.

This power struggle between the two commanders descended into armed conflict on April 15. The fighting erupted in Sudan's capital, Khartoum, and quickly spread to many regions, including North Darfur and Darfur.