Hague court to rule on South China Sea as tensions rise

By Todd Crowell

TOKYO (AA) – Tensions are rising in the South China Sea on the eve of a pending decision Tuesday by the Permanent Court of Arbitrations in The Hague in the case of “Philippines vs China”.

China announced a “no sail” policy over much of the northern reaches of the South China Sea to accommodate extensive naval maneuvers that began last week and were set to end Monday, exactly one day before the anticipated verdict.

At the same time, a large American naval flotilla headed by the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan patrolled the Sea.

As of July 6, the United States Navy had seven surface ships in the Sea, including two cruisers and four destroyers.

The Navy Times newspaper reported that three of the destroyers were patrolling within 20 to 14 nautical miles of reclaimed reefs and atolls that Beijing has turned into artificial islands through extensive dredging. (The territorial limit stands at 12 nautical miles.)

A U.S. Navy spokesman called these patrols regular and routine, but in fact Washington has deployed an aircraft carrier -- or sometimes two carriers -- to these waters almost continuously for the past few months.

Meanwhile, the East China Sea -- which has been relatively quiet for the past couple years -- has also been the location in recent weeks of mutual complaints of fighters from Japan and China making provocative movements against each other.

The Global Times, a mouthpiece for the Chinese Communist Party, warned that “China must be prepared for any military intervention . . . the U.S. would pay a cost it could not stand if it intervened in the South China Sea by force.”

The words from Washington were more muted. It has called on the nations in the South China Sea littoral to support Manila’s case, claiming to be neutral on the question of who owns which island but in general supporting a “rules based order” at sea.

China and the U.S. have been accusing one another of leading to militarization of the resource-rich Sea, a critical asset for global shipping and fishing that sees more than $5 trillion in maritime trade every year.

In 2013, the Philippine government filed a complaint before the Permanent Court of Arbitration, seeking its ruling on the legitimacy of China’s “Nine-Dash Line”.

It is a boundary line that dips past the Philippines, almost as far as Indonesia before looping back north by the coast of Malaysia and Vietnam.

The line, which has appeared on official maps of China since before the Communists took control, makes it seem that Beijing is claiming all of the South China Sea and not just the reefs, atolls and small islands that dot the sea and are claimed by different countries.

Beijing did not bother to contest the case, and has steadfastly maintained that it will not recognize the court’s ruling as legitimate.

“We will not accept or recognize [the judgment],” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kong.

The new Philippine president, Rodrigo Duterte, has contributed to the uncertainty over the expected ruling.

He seems to be far less aggressive on this issue than his predecessor, former President Begnino Aquino III, who had initiated the tribunal claim.

Happy to see what appears to be a change in attitude in Manila, Beijing has responded by welcoming bilateral talks on issues that divide them in the region.

But Beijing has often expressed a willingness to negotiate conflicting claims on a bilateral basis.

This approach has usually been rejected by other nations around the South China Sea rim as being basically a divide and conquer ploy.