Ireland watches closely for Brexit

By Michael Sercan Daventry

LONDON (AA) – People living in Ireland will be watching the outcome of Britain’s EU membership referendum far closer than most international observers.

Despite separating from the United Kingdom nearly a century ago, the Republic of Ireland remains closely intertwined with its nearest geographical neighbor.

The two countries share a vast trading relationship, exchanging over 1 billion euros’ ($1.13 billion) worth of goods and services every week, according to Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

There is also a strong social connection. Tens of thousands of families are separated by the open, unmarked land border that runs between the Republic and Northern Ireland. Thousands more live across the Irish Sea in Great Britain – particularly in northwest England.

That close bond between the two countries is reflected in a 1923 agreement – predating the EU by decades – that allows British and Irish citizens to live, work and vote in each other’s countries.

But with the Republic of Ireland remaining an EU member irrespective of Thursday’s referendum result, many have expressed concern that Brexit would tear up this longstanding British-Irish arrangement.

- Cross-border travel

No-one knows precisely how many people regularly travel across the Irish land border to work and study. The Dublin-based Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) estimates there are at least 30,000 daily commuters, but the British-Irish Chamber of Commerce says the figure is at least 60,000.

A British exit would turn the Irish land border into a frontier with a non-EU member state, possibly requiring passport controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

These concerns were voiced most recently by U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron in parliament last week: “If we vote to stay in we know what the situation is. We know that the Common Travel Area works; we know it can continue and everyone can have confidence in that.

“If we were to leave and, as the Leave campaigners want make a big issue about our borders, then you've got a land border between Britain outside the European Union and the Republic of Ireland inside the European Union.

“Therefore you can only either have new border controls between the Republic and Northern Ireland or, which I would regret hugely, you'd have to have some sort of checks on people as they left Belfast or other parts of Northern Ireland to come to the rest of the United Kingdom.”

That claim was dismissed by Theresa Villiers, Britain’s cabinet minister for Northern Ireland, who has been campaigning for Brexit, who told the Financial Times in April that it was “scaremongering of the worst and most irresponsible kind”.

- Trade tariffs

But even if regular passport checks were not introduced, Britain’s exit from the European free-trade zone could bring tariffs on goods – particularly on food, a major trading commodity between the two countries.

Edgar Morgenroth, associate research professor at the Dublin-based Economic and Social Research Institute, published a study on the likely effects of Brexit on the Irish economy late last year.

He told the Irish Independent: “If Britain and the EU had to sign a trade agreement, products might be subject to tariffs – EU tariffs are on average 5 percent to 6 percent, and they are higher for food.

“If you have trade barriers, prices go up. Thirty percent of our merchandise comes from the U.K.”

And the island of Ireland shares an electricity grid, raising the prospect of higher wholesale energy prices across the international border.

- International campaigning

It is the prospect of widespread change to Ireland’s economy that means the country is watching the Brexit referendum closer than most. Some are actively campaigning: all of Ireland’s main political parties – both north and south – have an official position on the referendum.

The pro-Remain Irish parties are an unlikely mix: parties supporting Irish republicanism and British unionism are campaigning on the same side of this debate.

The only major voice to endorse Brexit is the Democratic Unionist Party, one half of Northern Ireland’s governing coalition.

Its leader Arlene Foster announced in February that her party “has always been Eurosceptic in its outlook” but saw nothing to suggest the fundamental reform needed in the EU could be delivered.

Ireland’s prime minister, Enda Kenny, visited Britain last week to urge Irish expatriates to vote to stay.

“Because of the unique nature of the ties between Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales, the closeness of the nations socially, economically, politically and in so many other areas of business, we feel it is important to speak to the Irish community who are entitled to vote in the referendum and to say to them that we believe very strongly that they should vote to stay as a member of the European Union,” Kenny said during the visit, the Irish Times reported.