No single party will secure simple majority in Israel's Knesset

By Ahmed Asmar

ANKARA (AA) – Israeli voters will cast ballot on Tuesday to elect members of the Knesset (Israel’s parliament) in the fourth elections in two years.

Thirty-nine electoral lists are vying in the polls, 13 of which are expected to gain the 3.25% electoral threshold needed to enter the Knesset.

Opinion polls predict that no single party or electoral list will manage to secure the simple majority in parliament (50%+1) to form a government. In Tuesday’s polls, two main parties are expected to form coalitions to secure parliamentary majority; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party and opposition leader Yair Lapid, who heads Yesh Atid (There is a Future) Party.

Contesting parties

Likud Party:

Founded in 1973 by former Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, the Likud Party adopts a right-wing ideology. The Likud has been heading the Israeli government since 2009 with Netanyahu as prime minister over the past 12 years.

Yesh Atid (There is a Future) Party:

Formed by centrist and secular figures and headed by current opposition leader Yair Lapid, the party is considered the second largest party in the current Knesset with 16 seats.

The party was founded in 2012 and joined a Likud-led government in 2012 where Lapid became a finance minister but resigned shortly from his government.

Yesh Atid endorses a political settlement with the Palestinians based on a two-state solution as “the only game in town” to end the decades-long conflict with the Palestinians.

New Hope Party:
The party was founded in December 2020 by Likud party member Gideon Sa’ar, who split along with others to challenge Netanyahu for the premiership. The party, however, still holds the same right-wing ideas of the Likud Party.

Yamina (Rightward) Party:

Yamina is a right-wing and a religious Zionist party that staunchly opposes any form of a Palestinian state.

Currently, the party has three seats in the Knesset and is headed by Naftai Bennett, a hardline leader who served as a minister in a Netanyahu-led government and had supported an Israeli policy of assassinating Palestinian leaders and activists.

Labor Party:

The Labor Party is one of the oldest Israeli parties. The party was in power when Israel forged the Oslo peace accords in 1993 with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).

Established in 1968, the party adopts a liberal and center-left ideology.

Meretz Party:

Founded in 1992, Meretz is a social democratic and left-wing party that supports a political settlement and a two-state solution with the Palestinians and advocates a freeze of Israeli settlement activities in the occupied Palestinian territories.

Kachol Lavan (Blue and White) alliance:

It was formed basically as an alliance and merger of three Israelis parties -- Yesh Atid party, Telem faction and Hosen l’Yisrael -- prior to the April 2019 elections and managed to win 30 seats in the Knesset. However, Yesh Atid party and Telem faction withdrew from the alliance.

The party holds a center-right ideology and a vague position towards a political settlement with the Palestinians. It is headed by current Defense Minister Benny Gantz, who hopes to topple Netanyahu in the upcoming elections.

Religious Zionism:

A far-right and religious alliance with an antagonist ideas against Arab citizens in Israel. The alliance was formed by a union between three religious groups in February 2021.

Shas Party:

The party currently has 9 seats in the Knesset and is headed by Interior Minister Aryeh Deri. It represents the Sephardi and Mizrahi Haredi Jewish communities in the Knesset. The party was founded in 1984 by Rabbi Ovadia Yosef (1920 – 2013) who was controversial due to his hate statements against Arabs and Palestinians.

United Torah Judaism (UTJ):
The UTJ is a union of two Jewish Haredi parties that has 7 seats in current Knesset. UTJ is running in the upcoming elections under the leadership of Yaakov Litzman, the current Minister of Housing and Construction.

Yisrael Beytenu:

A right-wing party that was established in 1999 by its current leader Avigdor Lieberman. It enjoys the support of the Russian-speaking Israelis and Jews, who are originally from the former Soviet Republics.

Lieberman was a defense minister in a Netanyahu-led government but withdrew from his government after Netanyahu agreed on a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip in 2019.

Joint List:

The Joint List is an alliance of Arab political parties founded in 2015. Currently, it has 11 Knesset seats and is headed by Ayman Odeh.

In the March 2020 elections, the Joint List won 15 seats, marking the third largest bloc in the Knesset, but will run in the upcoming elections with a split.

United Arab List (Ra’am):

Ra’am is the second Arab list in the upcoming elections, which was founded on January 28, 2021 after splitting from the Joint List. Ra’am is associated with the Islamic Movement in southern Israel headed by Mansour Abbas.

- Coalitions and alliances

Despite the blurry image of the map of alliances among rival Israeli parties, analysts expect that the main parties in the electoral race – Netanyahu’s Likud Party and Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party - will seek to appease more parties and blocs with a view to securing a parliamentary majority to form the new government.

According to a recent Israeli opinion poll, Likud is predicted to win 30 seats in the 120-member Knesset, followed by Yesh Atid with 19 seats and Yamina with 10 seats.

New Hope Party is projected to win 8 seats in the Knesset, Yisrael Beytenu 8 seats, Shas 8 seats, the UTJ 6 seats, the Labor Party 5 seats and Religious Zionism 5 seats.

The survey also predicts that the Blue and White will win 5 seats, Meretz 4 seats, the Joint List 8 seats and Ra’am 4 seats.

Based on this prediction, securing a simple majority may not be an easy job for both Netanyahu and Lapid, a situation that may push for a possible fifth round of elections.

Netanyahu’s declared allies are mainly from the right and far-right wing parties -- Shas, UTJ and Religious Zionism. But still this doesn’t give him a majority as Yamina Party has not decided yet to join Netanyahu.

Last month, Yamina leader Neftali Bennet said that he will not support a leftist government -- in reference to Lapid.

On the other hand, Lapid hopes to form a coalition government with New Hope, Yisrael Beytenu, Labor Party, Blue and White party and Meretz. He also hopes to convince the Joint List, which could give him further chances towards securing a parliamentary majority.

Ahmad Tibi, the leader of the Joint List, has kept the door open to ally with Lapid, saying "there is progress in Yair Lapid's policy toward the Joint List and the Arab population."