Prospects bleak for ceasefire deal in Yemen

By Abdullah Ahmed

SANAA, Yemen (AA) – One year since a ceasefire was reached in Yemen's western province of Al-Hudaydah between the government and Houthi rebels, efforts to save the deal from total failure have been underway by the UN's special envoy for Yemen.

The deal -- brokered by the UN and signed on Dec. 13, 2018 in Stockholm, Sweden -- aimed to resolve the situation in the coastal province, exchange prisoners and detainees on both sides and lift the siege imposed by the Houthis on the central Taiz city.

But implementation of the agreement between the two sides faltered, especially with the rebel group's failure to withdraw from Al-Hudaydah's three ports as well as failure to conduct a comprehensive release of prisoners on both sides amid an exchange of accusations of responsibility for obstructing the deal.

As 2019 draws to a close without any real success, observers believe that implementation of the agreement in the coming year has become impossible.

- Lack of total implementation

"The Stockholm Agreement achieved only two steps," Yemeni political analyst Marib Al-Ward told Anadolu Agency.

Al-Ward elaborated that the first step was the ceasefire in Al-Hudaydah province, "which was meant to stop the military campaign of the legitimate government and the [Saudi-led] Arab coalition to liberate Al-Hudaydah".

He argued that the agreement suspended the military actions of the Saudi-led Arab coalition and established a status quo in favor of the Houthis and their control over the city.

He stressed that there was no progress on the ground and the situation was subject to military escalation at any time, as the Houthis did not withdraw neither from Al-Hudaydah city nor its seaports.

Al-Ward stressed that even the observation points erected by the redeployment commission -- formed by the UN -- were threatened with failure due ceasefire breaches from both warring sides.

Regarding the prisoners swap, the analyst considered that "the limited prisoner exchange operations that took place were only limited concessions from both parties" as some "7,000 civilians linked to the legitimate Yemeni government were still being held in the prisons of the Houthi group."

As for lifting the siege on the city of Taiz, Al-Ward noted that "there has been no progress regarding it, except for unfulfilled international promises."

Doomed to failure

Thabet Al-Ahmadi, a political analyst, was also pessimistic about any progress on the implementation of the deal.

"The agreement was a formality …and made the Houthis a counterpart to the legitimate government," Al-Ahmadi told Anadolu Agency.

He stated that the agreement deviated from major references including UN Security Council Resolution 2216.

Drafted by members of the Saudi-led coalition and endorsed by the UNSC in April 2015, the resolution calls on the Houthis and allied forces to withdraw from all areas they have recently captured; surrender all weapons seized from state institutions; recognize President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi; and release all political prisoners.

Al-Ahmadi added that "relying on reviving the agreement today was like a dream of reviving the dead from his grave."

"The agreement will not help anything, because it is basically part of the international community's tricks on the Yemeni issue," he opined.

For his part, journalist Rashad al-Sharabi said that what was achieved through the agreement was in the interest of the Houthis to stop the liberation process of Al-Hudaydah and allow the group to control new areas in other provinces as well as developing its military capabilities to reach deep into Saudi Arabia, while thousands of civilians were still held and Taiz remained under siege.

"The Stockholm Agreement damaged the Yemeni issue and divided it into sub-issues, and worked to dilute the basic issue related to ending the [Houthi] coup and enabling legitimacy government to regain its powers," al-Sharabi said.

He stressed that the agreement "was born dead" and difficult to implement, after the timetable, to carry it out, has passed.

Al-Sharabi believes that the UN was interested in continuing to talk about optimism and success in implementing the agreement, which sees it as an achievement.

Yemen has been beset by violence and chaos since 2014, when Houthi rebels overran much of the country, including the capital.

The crisis escalated in 2015 when a Saudi-led military coalition launched a devastating air campaign aimed at rolling back Houthi territorial gains.

Since then, tens of thousands of Yemenis, including numerous civilians, are believed to have been killed in the conflict, while another 14 million are at risk of starvation, according to the UN.

*Writing by Mahmoud Barakat