Some signs of upturn, labor market outlook dismal: UN

Some signs of upturn, labor market outlook dismal: UN

International Labor Organization head says no country or sector can recover alone from dismal impact of COVID-19

By Peter Kenny

GENEVA (AA) - The financial and social distress for millions of people will continue through 2021 even though there are tentative signs of recovery emerging in global labor markets, the head of the International Labor Organization (ILO) said on Monday.

"We do see tentative signs of recovery. The signs are fragile; they are uncertain, and the prospects are notably uneven,” Guy Ryder said at a virtual news conference.

"But, with the right policies and actions, we can build upon these, and this is what we have to do," he added.

He said the world must remember that no country or sector can recover alone.

"Apparent improvement in one industry or one area alone would be a false door. So as we frequently hear, we truly are all in this together."

The head of the UN agency painted a gloomy picture of labor markets' progression last year and the massive impact of COVID-19 on them.

"This has been the most severe crisis for the world of work since the Great Depression of the 1930s," said the ILO head.

"Its impact is far greater than that of the global financial crisis of 2009."

When comparing with the last quarter of 2019, 8.8% of global working hours were lost during 2020. This is the equivalent of 255 million full-time jobs.

"About half of the lost working hours can be accounted for by reduced hours of work for those still in employment.

"The rest has come from unprecedented levels of loss of employment. And here, a total of 140 million people have been affected," said Ryder.

The lost working hours are accounted for either by reduced working hours for those in employment or unprecedented employment loss levels, hitting 114 million people.

"Significantly, 71% of these employment losses, (81 million people) came in the form of inactivity, rather than unemployment, meaning that people left the labor market because they were unable to work, perhaps because of pandemic restrictions, or simply ceased to look for work," said Ryder.

ILO data shows that women and young people are more likely to have been affected in 2020.

Looking to the optimistic scenario, Ryder said that the strongest recovery is projected to occur in the lower-middle-income countries.

“Higher and upper-middle-income countries would face a difficult in the first quarter, but their recovery would strengthen in the second half of the year as the effects of vaccination programs kick in.”

“All scenarios projected working hour losses will continue. In other words, that financial and social distress for millions of people will continue through 2021, and beyond that,” he noted.

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