TPP members cling to hopes deal may still be ratified

By P Prem Kumar

KUALA LUMPUR (AA) - Many of the member countries of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement are refusing to give up hope that it will be ratified despite Donald Trump proclaiming in a pre-election promise that the United States would no longer participate.

Under the terms of the agreement, if the U.S. -- the largest economy in the world -- opts out, the remaining countries cannot enforce the pact as 60 percent of the TPP's combined gross domestic product (GDP) comes from America.

Malaysia's international trade and industry minister told Anadolu Agency on Monday that leaders of TPP member countries -- who met on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru last week -- have decided to wait and see what happens when Trump takes the presidential oath in January.

Mustapa Mohamed said that members still believe that Trump may reconsider and decide that the advantages of the TPP to the U.S. economy outweigh the disadvantages.

"His previous comments and statements on TPP might have been political campaign rhetoric," he said in a telephone conversation.

"Trump said he would [completely] scrap Obamacare, but later changed his mind days after winning the election. This might happen to the TPP too," Mohamed said, referring to the nationwide insurance plan introduced by outgoing President Barack Obama.

The minister added that during the TPP leaders' meeting, Peru’s Prime Minister Fernando Zavala had proposed a TPP where China would take America's place.

"In that case we will have to reopen negotiations... But it is purely a suggestion because TPP leaders want to wait for the final outcome from the Trump administration," Mohamed underlined.

He said while the pact's future in the U.S. remains bleak, other TPP member countries continue to progress in their respective ratification processes.

"Even though the U.S. has given the suggestion that the TPPA may not be realized, Japan has continued to ratify the agreement."

Of the other members, Vietnam has shelved ratification due to the political changes in the U.S, and New Zealand has suggested "cosmetic changes" could be made to appease the U.S. president-elect.

“The Trump Pacific Partnership for instance, that’d be fine,” Prime Minister John Key appeared to joke during the APEC talks.

Under Chapter 30 of the TPP, member countries are given two years to ratify the pact in their respective legislative bodies from the February 2016 signing date.

If not ratified in the timeframe, the agreement could come into force after a minimum of six of the signatories, which made up 85 percent of the combined GDP in 2013, ratify and notify New Zealand as the depository.

On Feb. 4, trade ministers from 12 countries inked the TPP in New Zealand, paving the path for a freer movement of goods and services between member economies.

Member countries include the U.S, Japan, Mexico, Canada, Australia, Malaysia, Chile, Singapore, Peru, Vietnam, New Zealand and Brunei -- which represent more than 40 percent of the world’s GDP.

Although Obama -- who originally mooted the idea to mitigate China's rising influence in Pacific economies -- officially leaves office Jan. 20, 2017, his administration has said it will not ratify the agreement before Trump takes charge.

The U.S. was originally expected to sign off on the TPP in the three months following the election, but the agreement is now up in the air following Trump's victory.

In June, Trump promised he would scrap the TPP within the first 100 days of his presidency, calling it the “death blow for American manufacturing” in an appeal to working class voters.

Trump supporters have said they see such massive trade deals between the U.S., Europe and Asia as a continued threat to local employment and the American manufacturing industry.