Turkiye-Armenia ties at 'turning point,' says analyst

By Rabia Iclal Turan

ANTALYA, Turkiye (AA) - Newly thawing relations between Turkiye and Armenia are "at a turning point," said a US-born Armenian political analyst after a historic meeting between the two countries' foreign ministers.​​​​​​​

Speaking to Anadolu Agency on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, which Anadolu Agency is the global communication partner, Richard Giragosian, head of the Regional Studies Center (RSC) think tank in Yerevan, said Armenia's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan’s visit to the event was an “indication of the strategic significance that Turkey offers an important platform for international diplomacy.”

“The second reason I'm optimistic is after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we have a new geopolitical landscape and the emphasis on diplomacy over the force of arms is a shared objective of both Turkey and Armenia,” he said. “And after earlier meetings between Turkey and Armenia in Moscow then Vienna, this represents a continuation to sustain the momentum.”

A historic meeting took place Saturday between Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and his Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan, on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum. It was the first high-level visit to Turkiye from Armenia after many years.

Cavusoglu told reporters that the meeting was "extremely fruitful and constructive."​​​​​​​

According to Giragosian, there is a much more “important demonstration of goodwill on both sides.”

“However, the coming challenge is on Turkiye and Armenia to focus now on practical steps to implement expectations of normalization, the reopening of the border and establishing diplomatic relations,” he said. “And in this context, we need to remind both sides that we don't have the luxury of time in this war environment in Ukraine.”

He said that there is no “real progress on crucial details of the implementation of normalization.”

However, he added: “What we see now is a turning point.”

- Effects of Russia-Ukraine war on normalization process

Giragosian said Antalya is the “last preliminary stage of the opening round of negotiations.”

“What we expect next are concrete firm proposals from both sides to actually begin the implementation second stage,” he said. “Having said that, we still have despite the war in Ukraine, Russia not blocking the process, and Azerbaijan still contend with allowing normalization.”

“But this is a bilateral process between Turkiye and Armenia. Hence, the need for the next meetings to return to the region itself.”

- Turkish-Armenian normalization process

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkiye was one of the first countries to recognize Armenia’s independence on Sept. 21, 1991.

But following the 1993 occupation by Armenian forces of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory, the border between the two countries was closed, a condition that has remained to this day. There are other contentious issues, including the events of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire.

On Oct. 10, 2009, the two countries signed a peace accord, known as the Zurich Protocols, to establish diplomatic relations and open the border but failed to ratify the agreement in their respective national parliaments.

Fast forward to the fall of 2020 and the end of the 44-day second Nagorno-Karabakh war, which helped Azerbaijan recapture its territory and put Turkish-Armenian relations in a new phase.

Special representatives from Turkiye and Armenia, Serdar Kilic and Ruben Rubinyan, first met Jan. 14 in Moscow and the second meeting was held in Vienna on Feb. 24, after which both sides "reiterated their agreement to continue the process without preconditions."