Two Sessions: China’s political elite set to convene in Beijing amid economic headwinds

By Riyaz ul Khaliq

ISTANBUL (AA) – China’s political elite and lawmakers are set to assemble in the capital Beijing from Monday for the annual “Two Sessions,” or lianghui meetings.

Members of the legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), and top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, (CPPCC), will hold week-long meetings.

This year's focus is expected to be sustaining economic growth, increasing employment, possible new appointments and reaction to the turbulent international arena, analysts say.

More than 2,000 members of CPPCC will gather on Monday to hear the annual work report of the advisory body, while Premier Li Qiang will present his government work report in front of nearly 3,000 lawmakers of the NPC on Tuesday.

- Economic headwinds and ‘comprehensively deepening reform’

This year’s Two Sessions is expected to be of “much shorter duration … probably eight days in all, continuing the shortened version during COVID-19 pandemics,” Hong Kong-based China expert Andrew KP Leung told Anadolu.

“This year is another important one for comprehensively deepening reform. The primary task is to make plans for further comprehensive reforms … (which) also represents a new chapter of advancing Chinese modernization,” he added.

Beijing-based China analyst Einar Tangen said the CPC’s (Communist Party of China) mandate “depends on leading by example and managing the economic and social development of the country.”

“This means more anti-corruption actions and reforms.

“Maintaining China's competitiveness is a priority, as exports are still a critical part of China's development,” Einar told Anadolu.

“The economic transition towards a consumption- vs. investment-led economy is difficult when faced with geopolitical headwinds, conflicts, and declining global demand,” he said.

Einar argued that the government work report will “identify the targeted growth rate (4.8% to 5%), areas and means of stimulus.”

“Desire is to instill domestic and international confidence in China's growth. Domestically to spur consumption. Internationally to encourage FDI (foreign direct investment),” he added.

Chien-Yu Shih, a Taiwan-based analyst, agreed with Einar.

“The legitimacy of the CPC's rule lies in economic development. The most important thing is to increase people's income and employment,” said the Associate Research Fellow at Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, Einar said, “heads a 90-million-person party that values their role in achieving change through consensus, but a bureaucracy that too often focuses more on promotion, than meaningful works.”

He said the government may give more targeted stimulus domestically “as Beijing seeks to manage the economy during a difficult year.”

He expects the government to increase bond allowances “while efforts to improve housing and economic development in poorer areas will continue.”

“External demand is expected to fall further, as developed and developing nations struggle with debt, competitiveness, logistics, and market demand,” he noted.

Premier Li, Einar added, “is looking to do what is necessary to create larger markets.”

- Focus on ‘high-tech industrial transformation’

Einar said the Chinese lawmakers and advisers will focus on high tech areas “as China seeks to develop domestic replacements for US technology embargos.”

“China will also put funds towards new technologies that allow it to lead the world in their categories while lowering costs and thereby increasing competitiveness,” he explained, adding investments will be target-oriented.

Chien-Yu had a similar view. He said the Two Sessions will “first focus on ensuring economic growth and high-tech industrial transformation, coping with the endured competition between China and the United States, while coordinating export market and domestic demand development.”

He said the general public is willing to "believe that now is the stage of economic structural transformation."

“China's future economy will move towards high-quality industries, from manufacturing industrialization to information industries," the analyst said. "For the grassroots in China who are generally not wealthy, avoiding falling into unfair distribution is a most critical task for the CPC rule."

Neil Thomas, a fellow on Chinese politics at the Asia Society, said Premier Li is likely “to echo Xi on Party-guided tech-heavy industrial policy” and his "new productive forces" to boost innovation and increase productivity.

He said the government was likely to extend policy support for hi-end manufacturing, agri-tech, AI, biotech, drones, green tech and quantum.

- Qin Gang affair

Xi removed two main faces of his government – defense and foreign ministers Li Shangfu and Qin Gang – in the first year of his precedent-breaking third term as China’s president as well as the CPC supremo.

Wang Yi, who was promoted as director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee after Xi's reelection, was then pulled back to lead the Foreign Ministry.

The session would be a "high-profile event to close book on Qin Gang affair,” Thomas said, referring to the ousted foreign minister's alleged extra-marital affair with a TV host in the US.

Chien-Yu, meanwhile, said the whereabouts of the two “should be explained at the Two Sessions.”

Wang will hold the ministry’s annual news conference to deliberate on the foreign policy issues.

Thomas said he would “likely to stress stability given economy and US election.”

- Belt and Road

Einar said the Chinese lawmakers will also discuss continued upgrades to logistics to increase trade capacity, flexibility and capacity through Belt and Road projects.

“Increased emphasis on feasibility project loans, rather than country to country loans. Creating reliable trade currencies, in part through internationalizing the Yuan,” he said.

- Focus on Taiwan?

According to Chien-Yu, the Taiwanese expert, intra-party-political disputes and Taiwan are “secondary issues” at the annual plenary sessions.

“The United States and Japan play key roles in maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait. China cannot unilaterally change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, somehow forcing the United States to directly intervene, he said.

“However, China will continue to weaken Taiwan's international status from the perspective of international law."

But he believes “China will continue to engage in gray zone warfare against Taiwan, destroying some of the tacit understanding between the two sides across the Strait in the past, such as invading the sea and airspace under their respective jurisdictions.”

- New appointments

The analysts said Liu Jianchao, a former ambassador, is seen as a likely frontrunner for the post of foreign minister. He is the current head of the ruling Communist Party’s International Liaison Department.

According to Einar, lawmakers would discuss succession plans at the CPC. “Solving the succession problem will be an issue, how to transfer power to the next generation without threatening the gains made during the current administration,” he said.