NEW YORK (AA) – It is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week, but a rate hike in July is still possible, Goldman Sachs said in a report.
"We believe June is largely off the table given the weakness of Friday’s employment report and the U.K. referendum on its EU membership in June.
But we think the July meeting is live," said Charles P. Himmelberg, head of Global Credit Strategy at the bank and author of the report released Wednesday.
The U.S. economy added 38,000 jobs in May – its fewest since September 2010 -- against market expectations of 160,000 new jobs.
The weak data reported last week was viewed by analysts as negatively affecting a possible Fed rate hike later this month.
"We continue to see the probability of the next rate hike at 0 percent for June, 40 percent for July and 30 percent for September," Himmelberg said.
He said Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech Monday, "presented a generally upbeat view of the U.S. economy" and that she did not provide an explicit timeline.
Himmelberg said in the report the Fed decided at its January, March, and April meetings that it would be cautious about a rate hike, but added, "when financial conditions eventually eased to the low end of the historical range shown above, Fed speak began to turn more hawkish."
The Fed pointed to weak domestic labor market conditions and risks abroad, such as Great Britain’s possible exit from the EU and the Chinese economy, in its previous meetings this year.
The bank last raised its benchmark interest rate in December -- the first increase in almost a decade.