'Warming of oceans cause frequent cyclones along Indian shores'

By Ahmad Adil

NEW DELHI (AA) - With a coastline of 7,516 kilometers (4,670 miles), spread across nine provinces with a population of 420 million, climate scientists in India have urged scaling up investments to monitor extreme weather events and frequent cyclones that often leave death and destruction in coastal areas.

Speaking to Anadolu Agency on the eve of World Oceans Day, which is being observed on Wednesday, Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said due to the warming of oceans, the frequency, and intensity of cyclones have increased in the Arabian Sea on the western coastline.

"Bay of Bengal generally has more cyclones since the waters here are warmer. Now, due to ocean warming, the frequency and intensity of cyclones have increased in the Arabian Sea, while it has remained almost the same in the Bay of Bengal,” he said.

The scientist said the frequency of cyclones has increased by 50% in the Arabian Sea over the past four decades. He said the intensity has also increased by 20% to 40%.

In August last year, the Indian government informed the parliament that a total of 720 people had lost their lives from 2016 to Aug. 3, 2021, due to cyclones.

He said while the forecasting system has improved, there is a need to have a better monitoring system as well to observe ocean subsurface. He added that the country will need at least three satellites to monitor the winds over the Indian Ocean.

"That means we are not even able to monitor cyclone winds every time, only 60% of the Indian Ocean is monitored for winds. So even our best-observed estimates of cyclone intensity are patchy. We need to scale up our investments so that we can at least implement these observing systems to monitor these extreme weather events," said the scientist.

The scientist also said since cyclones draw energy from warm waters, ocean warming is leading to their frequent occurrence with more intensity.

"The impact of global warming due to climate change and its effect on extreme weather events such as frequency and high-intensity tropical cyclones formed over global ocean basins is a matter of concern. High-intensity cyclones have become more frequent in the North Indian Ocean, causing significant risk and vulnerability to the coastal regions," said Koll.

- Rapid intensification is a challenge

He recalled that cyclones like Tauktae (2021) and Fani (2019) intensified from weak to strong in less than 24 hours.

"This rapid intensification is a challenge for forecasters to predict, and also for disaster management to act quickly on the ground. Rapid intensification due to warmer ocean waters is happening both in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal," he said.

According to scientists, the Indian Ocean is warming at a faster rate than other oceans, and regions along its coastlines are facing more danger.

"In some regions of the Indian Ocean, the change in surface temperature during the past century has been about 1.2 to 1.4 degrees Celsius. This is larger than the average global warming of 1.1 degrees Celsius. This rapid pace of the warming means there would be more severe weather events like cyclones and extreme rains over regions surrounding the Indian Ocean," Koll said.

Referring to the Cyclonic Storm Tauktae in 2021 that hit the Arabian Sea, the scientist said not only the intensity, but the lifespan of cyclones has also increased by about 80%, which means cutting down on fishing days.

Renowned Indian Meteorologist Gufran-Ullah Beig, also the founder of India's state-run System of Air Quality Weather Forecasting and Research, told Anadolu Agency that long-term plans are needed to deal with the extreme weather conditions like cyclones.

"We as a society and country should gear up to tackle emergency events like this. For this long term, planning should be taken, so that we are prepared to tackle unforeseen events like cyclones. It requires long-term planning," he said.

He said that while the frequency of cyclones has increased, scientists are not sure the reason behind it.

"But most of them including me, believe that it is something the circulation balance which has been changing due to the climate change. It could be one of the major reasons," he said.