Will Irish unity be on horizon under a Sinn Fein-led government in Northern Ireland?

By Ahmet Gurhan Kartal

LONDON (AA) - Northern Ireland has always been a turbulent piece of Ireland not only with its history but also its political fluctuations in the past 10 years.

Geographically siting in the north of the Republic of Ireland, in the UK’s one of four countries alongside England, Scotland and Wales, a nationalist Sinn Fein party majority in Northern Ireland, as projected by the latest polls, will accelerate the debate on the unification with Ireland.

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald believes in a significant change “in this decade.”

“We believe that significant change will happen in the course of this decade,” McDonald said in a recent remark ahead of the May 5 Assembly election in Northern Ireland.

Refraining from giving a specific time scale for a referendum on the unity, McDonald said the “planning and dialogue and engagement needs to happen now.”

“That process needs to be underway in the here and in the now.”

As the nationalist Sinn Fein is in a clear lead, according to the latest opinion polls, with around 5-6 points ahead of the May 5 election, a referendum on the unification of Northern Ireland and Ireland – a requisite of the historic 1998 Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement when the conditions are right – seems to be in the making.

- Northern Ireland Protocol

The thorny issue of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which was signed with the EU as part of the Withdrawal Agreement and keeps Northern Ireland aligned with the bloc for the sake of avoiding a hard border with Ireland, will definitely play a huge part in the making of the new executive if the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) becomes the second party.

The unionist party has consistently said it will not enter the executive unless there is “substantial reform” to the protocol, which they believe creates a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

Party leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the Ulster Unionist leader Doug Beattie have refused to say until now if they would appoint a deputy first minister if Sinn Fein gets the majority of votes this week.

- Latest polls

A Belfast Telegraph/LucidTalk poll, in March, signaled an Irish nationalist victory on May 5 with 26%, where the DUP is projected to be receiving 19%.

The opinion poll suggests a historic Irish nationalist victory and a Sinn Fein-led Assembly for the first time.

Winning the most seats at the local parliament Stormont, if the polls are proven correct on Thursday, will mean that the first minister will be the leader of Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland and the deputy first minister position will be filled by the DUP.

However, a new poll from the Institute of Irish studies/University of Liverpool/Irish News put Sinn Fein as the largest party with a 26.6% share of first preference votes, and the centrist Alliance Party and DUP were both predicted 18.2%.

A shock result that will make the Alliance the second party will mean that the party leader Naomi Long can become the next deputy first minister.

- Unification of two Irelands

The unification of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is only possible with public votes in both sides of the border, as the Good Friday Agreement “recognises the right of the people of the island of Ireland to bring about a united Ireland, subject to the consent of both parts.”

Sin Fein, alongside other promises, has said it will work for the Irish unity.

“The only people not talking about Irish Unity are the government,” it says in its manifesto.

“The institutions in the north are back up and running, we need a national forum, a citizens Assembly to have the discussion and we need to start the planning for the Unity referendum.”

So, the nationalist party is determined to start preparations for such polls in Northern Ireland and Ireland, which would almost certainly find counter reaction from the region’s unionists.

- Background

Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum and it is feared the Brexit process could trigger enmity in the region.

The Troubles, an era of conflict between the British government and pro-British paramilitaries on one side and Irish Republicans and nationalists on the other – ended in 1998 when the Belfast Agreement put an end to decades of armed struggle in the divided UK region of Northern Ireland.

The UK and the Republic of Ireland signed the deal, brokered by the US and eight political parties in Northern Ireland, on April 10, 1998.

The deal dubbed the Good Friday Agreement, largely saw the end of the Troubles-era violence, in which 3,500 people lost their lives.

However, splinter IRA groups are still active in the region.