EXPLAINER - Japan's snap elections: What is at stake?

By Saadet Gokce

ISTANBUL (AA) - Japan is heading into a snap House of Representatives election on Sunday after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved the lower chamber last month, seeking a direct public mandate for her premiership.

The dissolution on Jan. 23 at the opening session of a regular parliament, locally known as the Diet, was an unusual move not seen in six decades, even though the prime minister has the authority to take such action. It also came just months after she took office last October.

After the house dissolution, Japan’s opposition regrouped, with the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito, a former long-time ruling coalition partner that left the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) last year, joining forces to form the Centrist Reform Alliance.

In total, more than 1,270 candidates are contesting for 465 seats in the powerful lower house, setting the stage for a high-stakes vote that could change Japan’s current political landscape.

The East Asian nation has more than 104 million registered voters, with an average turnout of 58.16%, according to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems.

Candidates have been given just 12 days to run their political campaigns, which is the shortest campaign period for a lower house election in the postwar era.

- How Japan’s election system works

Of the total candidates, 426 are with the ruling coalition and 236 with the Centrist Reform Alliance, according to The Japan Times.

At the time of dissolution, LDP held 198 seats, while its coalition partner, Japan Innovation Party, held 34. The Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito were holding 167 seats under the Centrist Reform Alliance.

A party or coalition needs at least 233 seats to elect a prime minister.

Under Japan’s electoral system, voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in their single-member district and another for a political party under proportional representation.

A distinctive feature of the system is that candidates may run simultaneously in both systems; even if they lose a district race, they can still secure a seat through proportional representation.

The election covers 289 constituencies, while the remaining 176 seats are allocated across 11 proportional representation blocs.

- Current political climate

Public opinion polls conducted by eight major Japanese media organizations show that while Takaichi lost some support in January, she continues to hold a majority, according to the Nippon news website.

One poll puts her approval rating at more than 70%, while six others show support in the 60% range.

According to Mikitaka Masuyama, a political science professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, Takaichi’s popularity is the key reason for the call to snap elections.

“Since taking office last year, she has faced the challenge of a minority ruling coalition, forcing her to make compromises with a coalition partner and a centrist opposition party,” he said.

The LDP, which has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, suffered a heavy defeat in the 2024 general election, losing its lower house majority for the first time since 2009. The setback was followed by another blow last July, when the party lost its majority in the upper house.

Takaichi dissolved the house to break this deadlock “despite constitutional concerns and without any justification for the timing,” aiming to solidify her ruling LDP's parliamentary foundation while her approval ratings remain high, Masuyama added.

- Major election issues

Economic and fiscal issues are the major concerns of voters.

Nearly every party running has put forward countermeasures such as reducing or abolishing the consumption tax, according to Masuyama.

While each party has outlined funding measures, “many are overly optimistic,” he said.

Apart from economic pressures and cost-of-living concerns, immigration and labor shortages, national security, energy policy, and political trust are also weighing heavily on voters’ minds, according to Yasuo Takao, a political scientist at Curtin University.

“The economy and employment” are the most significant issues for 70% of respondents in surveys on preferred campaign debate topics.

“Child-rearing support” and “pensions, healthcare, and long-term care,” including consumption tax issues, each draw about 30%, Takao added.

- Likely outcomes

Together with the Japan Innovation Party, the governing bloc is on track to potentially surpass 300 seats, according to Takao.

Takaichi's likely securing a clear majority is buoyed by her strong personal popularity and a newly formed party alliance, he explained.

By contrast, the opposition coalition is performing poorly and could see its pre-election strength of 167 seats halved, he predicted, adding that the performance of the Democratic Party for the People is expected to remain roughly unchanged, while the Sanseito and another small party, Team Mirai, are showing signs of significant gains.

Sanseito, a right-wing populist party founded in 2020, jumped from one seat to 14 in the 2025 upper house elections.

"Nevertheless, uncertainties remain due to shifting voter dynamics, possible coalition realignments, and the unusual nature of this snap election," Takao added.

According to Masuyama, the new opposition coalition is indeed not on a good footing.

It has yet to present itself as a viable alternative to the current ruling coalition, he said, explaining that if the non-partisan voters, drawn by Takaichi's personal popularity, vote for the LDP, then the party is predicted to win by a landslide.

However, he said, if non-partisan voters lose faith in Takaichi and stay home due to bad weather, the new centrist party might put up a good fight against the LDP if it can reliably secure the organized votes of supporting labor unions and religious groups. The Komeito party has traditionally received support from Buddhist groups and remains strong in some regions.

This election is being held amid harsh winter conditions in Japan, drawing criticism due to the obstacles it causes to campaigning and the voting process. Heavy snowfall is also expected on the voting day, potentially affecting voter turnout.

- Implications of outcomes

If the LDP wins by a landslide, Takaichi, “claiming a mandate from the people, would likely push forward with an expansionary fiscal policy and strengthen a hawkish stance on defense and security issues,” said Masuyama.

“In that case, tensions in the already strained relationship with China could escalate further as Beijing adopts an even harder-line stance,” he added.

Tensions between Beijing and Tokyo have been tense since last November, when Takaichi said a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, possibly enabling the exercise of collective self-defense.

Takao also said that if the ruling bloc can secure an “absolute stable majority,” which is the benchmark needed for stable parliamentary management, then it would control all permanent committee chair positions and hold a majority of seats on those committees, which would make legislation considerably smoother for the government.