EXPLAINER – What’s at stake in Nepal’s post-protest election

By Bhadra Sharma

KATHMANDU, Nepal (AA) – Nepal is heading into a pivotal parliamentary election months after youth-led protests forced the resignation of powerful Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and plunged the country into political turmoil.

Thursday’s vote is set to determine whether traditional political parties retain control or whether new political forces backed by younger voters take charge.

Last September, thousands of students took to the streets demanding an end to corruption and political mismanagement. Police fired on demonstrators outside the parliament complex, killing 19 protesters and triggering nationwide unrest.

The following day, angry crowds attacked government buildings, including the offices of the prime minister, the Supreme Court and parliament, as well as the homes of senior politicians and several business complexes.

The army evacuated Oli and other senior leaders to secure locations as violence engulfed Kathmandu.

“I would have been killed if it was five minutes late,” Oli told reporters weeks after returning home.

Amid the chaos, retired Supreme Court Chief Justice Sushila Karki was appointed to lead an interim government, after virtual voting on Discord, tasked with making drastic changes demanded by the youth protesters. However, the government’s focus has been on organizing elections within six months.

Five months later, that government has prepared the country for a new vote to elect a 275-member House of Representatives, which will then choose the next prime minister.

Election officials have deployed security forces across the country and transported voting materials to remote polling stations using helicopters, horses and even yaks.

More than 3,400 candidates are contesting 165 seats under the first-past-the-post system, while parties have fielded 1,270 candidates for the 110 seats allocated through proportional representation.

To be elected prime minister, a lawmaker must secure the support of at least 138 members of the 275-seat House of Representatives.

If no party secures a majority, the largest party will need to strike agreements or form a coalition government.

- Youth impact in politics

The protests have already reshaped Nepal’s political landscape.

Under pressure from younger voters, several parties have sidelined long-standing leaders. Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba, 79, announced his retirement from party leadership, paving the way for a party convention that elected Gagan Thapa, 49, as its new chief.

However, other traditional leaders, including Oli and former Maoist guerrilla commander Pushpa Kamal Dahal, remain influential figures heading into the vote.

But new political forces are also gaining prominence.

Balendra Shah — the mayor of Kathmandu widely known as “Balen” who backed last September’s protests — resigned from his post to join the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP).

The 35-year-old rapper-turned-politician had previously won the capital’s mayoral race as an independent candidate, winning nearly twice as many votes as heavyweight candidates from major political parties in the 2022 local elections.

The RSP, led by former TV host Rabi Lamichhane, was formed just months before the 2022 election, and had emerged as the fourth-largest party in the parliament.

Since Lamichhane faces several ongoing legal cases surrounding organized crime and money laundering, the party has nominated Balendra as its candidate for prime minister.

Balendra is contesting the election from Jhapa-5, the home constituency of Oli, who is also seeking a return to power as leader of the Unified Marxist-Leninist party, a communist group.

Nepali Congress president Gagan Thapa is contesting from the Sarlahi-4 constituency near the Indian border, but faces a challenge from former Nepali Congress leader Amresh Kumar Singh, who is running with the RSP.

- Old guard versus new forces

Indeed, the election is widely seen as a contest between Nepal’s traditional political establishment and emerging parties backed by younger voters.

“This is going to be a very unique election,” said Vijay Kant Karna, a professor of political science at Tribhuvan University. “Established parties will gradually decline from the scene. Many youths are talking about the RSP, Rastriya Swatantra Party.”

Candidates have become heavily reliant on social media platforms — Facebook, TikTok, YouTube and Instagram — to reach voters.

“No jargon-heavy language. Youths are straightforward in communicating with candidates,” said Karna.

This time, voters are also most concerned about unemployment, education and health services. In past elections, poverty dominated as the most pressing issue.

Voter Keshab Pyakurel said he would cast his ballot for RSP.

“I repeatedly voted for old parties. That didn’t make any changes so let’s try new parties,” he told Anadolu.

- Possibility of geopolitical shift

For decades, the country’s major political parties have balanced relations with regional powers India and China.

Analysts say the rise of new political forces could alter how Kathmandu engages diplomatically with both neighbors.

“They should talk to the government of Nepal professionally, not with the communist party or Congress party,” said Karna, who is also executive chairperson of the Center for Social Innovation and Foreign Policy. “All should stop practicing old-style diplomacy.”

Nepal, he added, should broaden its international engagement.

“More engagement with other countries like Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam and our neighboring countries Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, will be crucial for us instead of just focusing on big neighbors,” he said.