FACTBOX – Sudan’s war enters 3rd year as fighting rages on western frontlines

By Ahmed Satti, Hisam Sabanlioglu and Rania Abu Shamala

PORT SUDAN, Sudan / ISTANBUL (AA) – Sudan has been mired in a brutal conflict between the national army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 15, 2023, amid widespread destruction and a deepening humanitarian crisis.

With the war now entering its third year, fighting is intensifying across several regions of the country, particularly in the west.

The clashes initially erupted in the capital Khartoum, before spreading to multiple states, plunging the nation into a cycle of violence that has caused “the world’s largest displacement crisis,” leaving millions of civilians facing dire humanitarian conditions.

In a major victory last month, the Sudanese army reclaimed the Presidential Palace in Khartoum, which had remained under RSF control for nearly two years, in a move seen as a major turning point in the war, though analysts and field sources warned that it does not signify an end to hostilities.

Following their loss of strategic positions in the capital, the RSF escalated its attacks on El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur State in western Sudan, which has been under a tight siege since May 10, 2024.

Anadolu outlines the latest field developments in Khartoum and the western frontlines, alongside an analysis of the key actors in the conflict.

-Recapture of Khartoum

On Sept. 26, 2024, the Sudanese army launched a ground offensive against RSF positions in Khartoum. The operation later expanded into other states, leading to the army regaining control over most of Sennar State in the south and Al-Jazirah and White Nile States in central Sudan.

In the capital, the army made significant advances, regaining the Presidential Palace on March 21, 2024, which had been under RSF control since the outbreak of fighting in April 2023. Following the loss, RSF forces began withdrawing westward via the Jebel Aulia Bridge in southern Khartoum.

In the process, the army reclaimed most of the city’s neighborhoods and freed more than 4,000 individuals held hostage by RSF forces.

On March 26, Sovereign Council Chairman and army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan landed at Khartoum International Airport, previously an RSF military base, and proceeded to the Presidential Palace. From within the palace, Burhan declared the liberation of Khartoum. Days later, on March 28, army forces also seized control of “Souq Libya” in Omdurman, a major RSF stronghold.

According to experts, these developments suggest the army has regained control over most of Khartoum.

-RSF origins

The RSF traces its roots to the notorious Janjaweed militias used by former President Omar al-Bashir to suppress an armed rebellion that erupted in Darfur in 2003. That rebellion was driven by grievances over perceived marginalization of non-Arab populations.

In response, Bashir enlisted militias, mostly composed of Arab-origin locals, to combat rebel groups that largely came from African ethnic communities.

After the 2010 peace process began, the Sudanese government sought to integrate the militias into the armed forces. In 2013, they were attached to the intelligence agency as “Border Guards,” later rebranded as the Rapid Support Forces, and formally recognized in 2014.

Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as “Hemedti,” became the RSF commander and officially integrated the group into the military institution in January 2017 after parliament passed the RSF Act.

Since then, Hemedti has gained considerable regional and economic influence through involvement in conflicts in Yemen and Libya, and by controlling numerous gold mines in Kordofan and Darfur since 2017.

-2018 turning point

In 2018, widespread protests erupted in Sudan due to worsening economic and living conditions, ultimately leading to a revolution that toppled Bashir’s 30-year regime.

The army and RSF jointly deposed Bashir and established a transitional military council. Army leader Burhan assumed the presidency, while Hemedti became vice president.

Under a power-sharing agreement, a joint civilian-military government was formed with the Forces of Freedom and Change coalition. However, this arrangement collapsed on Oct. 25, 2021, when the army and RSF ousted the civilian component from power.

-Spark of war

Tensions between the two forces steadily rose, particularly over disagreements regarding the timeline and process for integrating RSF fighters into the army, a central requirement of the transition plan. External interference further exacerbated political and security instability.

While the army insisted on a two-year integration period, the RSF demanded no less than ten years.

On April 13, 2023, RSF units moved toward Merowe Airport and the northern airbase, which the army viewed as a direct provocation and the first spark of the ongoing war.

Army spokesperson Nabil Abdullah stated that RSF forces began mobilizing in Khartoum and other cities without coordination or approval from military leadership.

By the early hours of April 15, gunfire erupted in key areas of the capital, including Arkaweet, the Sports City complex, the army's General Command, the Presidential Palace, the state television building, and the residence of Sovereign Council Chairman Burhan.

Soon, heavy clashes echoed throughout the capital, with smoke plumes rising from multiple neighborhoods. Khartoum International Airport saw intense military activity, rendering it inoperable almost immediately.

- Displacement crisis

Over the past two years, Sudan's infrastructure has sustained severe damage, especially in Khartoum. Bridges have been destroyed, electricity and water facilities sabotaged, buildings set ablaze, and markets looted.

Even museums were not spared, while oil refineries suffered major damage, and Khartoum International Airport was heavily impacted.

Official figures report 20,000 deaths directly caused by the fighting, though estimates suggest the actual toll exceeds 150,000.

The war in Sudan has precipitated what has been described as “the largest displacement crisis in the world,” and has crippled the country’s healthcare system.

Over 11 million people have been internally displaced, while nearly 4 million have fled to neighboring countries.

According to UN data, more than half of Sudan’s population – over 30.4 million people – urgently require humanitarian assistance.

Children are particularly vulnerable, facing risks of violence, abuse, forced displacement, malnutrition, and disease.

More than 3 million children are at risk of contracting deadly diseases due to the collapse of the healthcare system, while 17 million are now out of school.

- Escalating violence

Despite the army's reclaiming of most of Khartoum State, fighting persists across other regions. The RSF maintains control over four of Darfur’s five states and continues to clash with government forces in West, South, and North Kordofan.

Of Sudan’s 18 states, RSF forces now control only parts of North and West Kordofan, some pockets in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, and four states in the Darfur region.

Following the battles in Khartoum, the RSF intensified attacks on El-Fasher in North Darfur, which has been under siege since May 10, 2024, despite remaining under army control.

Government forces and allied militias continue to defend the city amid reports of worsening conditions in local displacement camps, home to millions of people.

Military leaders maintain that they will not stop until the RSF is expelled from every part of the country, while RSF commanders have threatened to expand their offensive into River Nile State, one of the few areas yet untouched by the war.

However, experts warn that despite recent army advances, Sudan’s military faces substantial field challenges that may delay a decisive resolution to the conflict.