Fitch affirms Türkiye’s credit rating at ‘BB-,’ maintains stable outlook

By Sevgi Ceren Gokkoyun and Rabia Iclal Turan

NEW YORK (AA) - Fitch Ratings on Friday affirmed Türkiye’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at “BB-” and maintained its outlook as “stable.”

In its assessment of the Turkish economy, Fitch said the rating reflects weaknesses and strengths in the country’s credit profile. It cited Türkiye’s “low government debt, record of sustaining access to external financing, resilient banking sector and high GDP per capita relative to the 'BB' peer group median” as key strengths.

The agency noted that its base case is for policies to remain “fairly tight through 2026,” while some easing is anticipated ahead of the 2028 elections. Fitch emphasized, however, that it does not expect “a return to highly negative real rates.”

Inflation, which dropped to 35% in June, is forecast to decline to 28% by the end of 2025 and to 21% by the end of 2026, although Fitch noted it is “still the highest of any sovereign we rate.”

Fitch projected that the Turkish economy will grow 2.9% in 2025, 3.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.

The agency said a “sustained decline in inflation that reduces the gap with rating peers underpinned by enhanced policy credibility, and a lower risk of renewed macro-instability” could lead to an upgrade. It added that a “significant strengthening of the sovereign's external buffers” could also positively affect Türkiye’s rating.

Fitch upgraded Türkiye’s rating from “B+” to “BB-” in September and affirmed the rating and the outlook in a follow-up review in January.