Global commodity prices next year expected to reach 6-year low: World Bank

By Mucahithan Avcioglu

ISTANBUL (AA) - The World Bank predicted Wednesday that global commodity prices will drop to a six-year low in 2026, marking their fourth consecutive year of decline, according to a new report.

Prices are expected to drop 7% in both 2025 and 2026, led by weak global economic growth, a growing oil surplus, and persistent policy uncertainty, according to the Commodity Markets Outlook report.

"Falling energy prices are helping to ease global inflation, while lower rice and wheat prices have helped make food more affordable in some developing countries," it said.

However, despite recent declines, commodity prices still stand above pre-pandemic levels, with prices in 2025 and 2026 expected to be 23% and 14% higher, respectively.

“Commodity markets are helping to stabilize the global economy,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s chief economist. “Falling energy prices have contributed to the decline in global consumer price inflation. But this respite will not last. Governments should use it to get their fiscal house in order, make economies business ready, and accelerate trade and investment.”

- Oil prices expected to fall

Stating that the global oil glut has grown significantly in 2025 and is expected to rise next year to 65% above the most recent high, in 2020, the World Bank said oil demand is growing more slowly as demand for electric and hybrid vehicles grows and oil consumption stagnates in China.

The bank projected that Brent crude oil prices would fall from an average of $68 in 2025 to $60 in 2026 – a five-year low. "Overall, energy prices are forecast to fall by 12% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026."

Meanwhile, food prices are also falling, it said. While soybean, coffee, and cocoa prices are expected to decline, fertilizer prices are projected to surge 21% this year, before easing next year.

-Gold prices to continue to climb

The report said precious metals reached record levels this year, fueled by demand for safe-haven assets and central bank purchases.

"The price of gold – widely viewed as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty – is expected to increase by 42% in 2025. It is projected to increase by a further 5% next year, leaving gold prices at nearly double their 2015-2019 average," it said.

The report also said silver prices are expected to rise 34% this year, reaching a record annual average, and to rise 8% in 2026.

The World Bank added that if global growth remains weak throughout the forecast period and trade tensions and policy uncertainties persist, commodity prices could fall more than expected