Leaked intel suggests US not confident Ukraine will quickly defeat Russia

By Michael Hernandez

WASHINGTON (AA) - Leaked apparent US intelligence documents suggest the Biden administration is far from confident that Ukraine can quickly mount a counteroffensive that will oust Russian troops from the country, according to multiple reports Wednesday.

The trove of documents, whose authenticity Washington has repeatedly declined to confirm or deny, has already thrown a wrench into many of the US's most vital relations, apparently exposing closed-door assessments that have riled allies and partners.

The latest tranche dates to February and March and shows a dour US assessment of Ukraine's force posture, including an analysis of medium-range air defense missiles that are used to thwart Russian strikes.

The Ukrainian stockpile of those munitions could be “completely reduced by May 23," according to one classified document reported on by CNN. That would allow Russia to claim air superiority in Ukraine, which would have devastating effects for Ukraine's ground forces that are expected to play the lead role in an expected spring counteroffensive.

But even as the documents raise questions over Ukrainian preparations, they similarly offer a downbeat assessment of Russian forces and predict a stalemate between the warring parties.

“Russia’s grinding campaign of attrition in the Donbas region is likely heading toward a stalemate, thwarting Moscow’s goal to capture the entire region in 2023,” one of the documents says, according to CNN.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Tuesday vowed to find the source of the unauthorized disclosures, pledging "to investigate and turn over every rock until we find the source of this, and the extent of it."

The Justice Department and Pentagon have opened investigations into how the cache was released without authorization and who might have been responsible.

Many are crudely taken photographs of documents with markings bearing varying levels of classification and appear to be folded, according to images circulating on social media. Some carry Joint Chiefs of Staff seals.

They had been circulating on Discord, a messaging platform popular with videogame streamers, for at least a month before they had been reported on by the New York Times newspaper on April 5, according to the investigative news website Bellingcat.

Many of the documents date back to March and relate to the war in Ukraine, including force and casualty levels for Kyiv and Moscow's militaries. Others paint a dire picture of Ukraine's munitions levels ahead of an expected counteroffensive to further roll back Russia's occupation.

Bellingcat said it has seen evidence that some documents that date to January could have been posted prior to the tranche that initially gained media attention after they were re-posted to Russian Telegram channels.

Asked if the documents circulating on the internet for weeks or potentially months before they were widely discovered marks an intelligence failure, Austin said the US is only aware of documents from Feb. 28 and March 1.

"I don't know if there are other documents that have been online before that. These are things that we will find out as we continue to investigate," he said. "We will continue to investigate and try to determine the full scope of the activity."

The Pentagon has maintained the documents pose "a very serious risk" to US national security and "have the potential to spread disinformation."​​​​​​​