Meloni’s 1st 100 days in office: So far, so good, but what’s next?

By Giada Zampano

ROME (AA) – When Giorgia Meloni stormed Italy’s political scene last October, becoming the country’s first female prime minister and its first far-right candidate to gain power since World War II, international partners and foreign investors feared a revolution in Rome’s political and economic approach with certain turbulence ahead.

One hundred days later, their expectations were disregarded.

During her first 100 days in office, Meloni surprised external and internal observers by softening her aggressive tone on key issues like fiscal policies and migration, developing an open dialogue with European institutions.

In the run-up to the celebration of her 100th day in government on Jan. 31, she held crucial meetings with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Pope Francis, confirming her new diplomatic approach to foreign relations.

In mid-January, her government obtained another unexpected boost when police in Sicily arrested Italy’s most wanted man -- “the boss of bosses,” Matteo Messina Denaro -- who had been on the run for 30 years.

Political analysts agree that Meloni beat most expectations by embracing a conciliatory approach with both the European Union and the most worried among Italy’s European partners, including Germany.

Her government’s budget for 2023 was surprisingly in continuity with the one approved by the previous Cabinet led by former European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi aimed at helping families and firms hit by the energy crisis without further straining the country’s troubled finances.

In response to this prudent approach, the spread between Italian and German 10-year government bonds -- a key indicator of Italy’s ability to pay back its debts -- has narrowed since Meloni’s Cabinet was sworn in, shrinking from 2.33 percentage points to around 1.8.

“Meloni herself cited the spread, a measure she traditionally refused to consider, in her assessment of the government’s first 100 days,” noted Cecilia Emma Sottilotta, assistant professor of Political Science at the University for Foreigners of Perugia. “This demonstrates how big was her change in dealing with Italy’s fiscal and financial matters.”

- Structural limits

In a video message released on Jan. 31, the Italian premier also reminded viewers about the government’s action against the Mafia, its measures to limit gas prices, and its strong anti-migrant policies.

Migration was one of the few issues on which the Meloni government maintained the hard line taken during its electoral campaign.

The government initially tried to block humanitarian ships asking to disembark rescued migrants in Italian ports. But after sparking an open spat with France -- which pointed out that the move was against Italy’s EU commitments -- it was quick to back down.

“I’d say, especially on the international front, so far, so good,” said Nathalie Tocci, director of Rome’s Institute for International Affairs. “The three pillars of Italy’s foreign policy -- its Euro-Atlantic positioning, its role within the EU and its projection towards North Africa -- are all respected.”

Experts’ views seem to be mirrored by popular support. According to recent polls, Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party continued to surge in popularity, rising from 26% during the general election in September to more than 30%.

Analysts, however, note that the Meloni government maintains some structural limits which may hinder its future actions and force it to give up an initially ambitious reform plan.

Foremost is Italy’s giant debt, the second highest in the eurozone after Greece.

Meloni knows well that structural reforms are among the necessary conditions for the payment of a crucial third tranche of grants and soft loans -- worth about €19 billion ($20.3 billion) -- from the EU’s post-pandemic recovery fund.

That’s why it is in the interest of Rome’s government to avoid clashes with Brussels or its main European partners until the last tranche has been paid.

“The main risk is that Meloni’s government, which was expected to be revolutionary, ends up being trapped by the same boundaries of her predecessors,” said Sottilotta. “In that case, her honeymoon with Italian voters, it’s going to end.”