Russia ready to 'test us' in real conflict in next 4 years, warns EU defense commissioner

By Melike Pala

BRUSSELS (AA) - EU Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius warned on Saturday that Russia could be ready to "test" Europe in a conflict within the next three to four years, stressing the need for the European Union to strengthen its defense capabilities.

Speaking to daily La Stampa after a meeting with Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, Kubilius described the talks as "high-level strategic discussions” and emphasized the importance of continued cooperation to reinforce European security.

"The problem is not the present but the future. The Russian economy has become a war economy. That is why we must strengthen ourselves," Kubilius said, highlighting two main challenges for the EU.

"There is the threat of a possible Russian aggression: our intelligence services state this publicly and clearly — in the next three or four years, Russia could be ready to 'test us' in a real conflict. The second challenge comes from the Americans, who are asking us to take on greater responsibility for European defense, as they need to allocate more and more resources to the Indo-Pacific," he added.

Kubilius said that while achieving full European defense capabilities would take time, new financial instruments and strategic planning are accelerating progress.

He pointed to critical areas such as space-based data, intelligence, and satellite communications, where Europe currently relies heavily on US support.

On NATO's future, the commissioner stressed that although he does not foresee the US abandoning the alliance, Europe must prepare to take on greater responsibility both within the bloc and in general security matters.

Addressing the ongoing war in Ukraine, Kubilius suggested integrating Ukrainian armed forces' battlefield experience and industrial capabilities into European defense structures.

"We also need to discuss a possible European Defense Union, a new security architecture that could include the UK, Norway, and Ukraine, to consolidate Europe’s defensive capabilities. As for the idea of a European army, it is probably too early to say anything concrete. It is a difficult and complex path, but we must begin to discuss it openly, looking at the next five to ten years," he said.

On financing Ukraine's needs, Kubilius highlighted proposals to use Russian assets seized in Europe as a mechanism to support both military and budgetary requirements, stressing that the decision rests with EU heads of state and government.

"The best guarantee for Ukraine’s security is a strong army. At the same time, we should help Ukraine become a successful country after peace, including through EU integration," he said.