By Melike Pala
BRUSSELS (AA) - Russia has no intention of launching a military attack against Estonia or any NATO member state in the coming year, said the head of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, broadcaster ERR reported on Tuesday.
In the introduction to the agency’s 2026 yearbook, Kaupo Rosin said Moscow's current strategic calculations do not include direct military action against NATO, stressing that sustained deterrence remains crucial.
"In the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service's assessment, Russia has no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year," Rosin said, adding that similar assessments are likely in the future as long as Europe and NATO continue strengthening their defense posture.
He added: "Even if no such intention exists today, our task is to ensure that this remains the case tomorrow and in the future ... Estonia and NATO must continue investing in defense. Russia's calculations of the balance of power must always work to our advantage.”
The former Soviet Republic of Estonia, sitting between Russia and access to the Baltic Sea, has a population of about 1.37 million, versus the 143.5 million population of its giant neighbor.
Despite heavy losses in the ongoing war in Russia, Rosin said there are no signs of political change in Moscow, with President Vladimir Putin remaining committed to the "complete subjugation" of Ukraine and promoting the idea of Russia's "special path" in global affairs.
But he also pointed to growing domestic pressures inside Russia, including economic decline, social instability, and the return of violent offenders from the battlefield, warning that public tolerance for hardship is not unlimited.
"Equally Potemkin-like is the notion of Russia's omnipotence," he said, pointing to a rearming Europe, a "more independent" Ukraine, and a struggling Russian economy marked by what he called repression and widespread trauma.
"Nor has the Kremlin succeeded in breaking allied unity. Its repeated failures show that Russia's ruling elite is simply incapable of doing so," Rosin said, noting that repeated efforts through sabotage and influence operations have failed.
"Russia remains dangerous despite its incompetence and vigilance is essential to prevent the expansion of the 'Russian World'," he warned. However, he said there is no reason for panic, calling instead for vigilance and closer Western cooperation.