By Saadet Gokce
ISTANBUL (AA) - Bangladesh is heading to the polls on Thursday for a general election widely seen as one of the most consequential in its history, the first since the July 2024 mass uprising that ended Sheikh Hasina’s 15 years in power.
The unrest that tumultuous year, prompted by controversial civil service job quotas, left around 1,400 people dead and thousands injured, according to the UN. Hasina was forced to flee to India, where she remains.
Now, in the country’s 13th parliamentary election, more than 127 million eligible voters will determine the country’s new course after 15 years of Awami League rule and two years of interim governance.
Notably, nearly one-fourth of the electorate are first-time voters. Many of them played a prominent role in the July-August 2024 protests and are now seeking a fundamental change in the country’s political and administrative culture.
The general election will be held alongside a referendum on political and institutional reforms.
- Main contenders
Over 2,000 candidates -- representing more than 50 political parties as well as independent contenders -- are vying for the 300 seats in parliament. The parliament also has 50 seats reserved for women that are allocated on a basis of voter percentage to parties.
The election has two main competitors, especially after Hasina's Awami League party was barred from competing: former allies the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami party.
Both parties are leading alliances.
The BNP is led by Tarique Rahman, who took the party helm after the death of his mother Khaleda Zia, herself a former premier.
After living in exile in the UK for decades, he returned to Bangladesh following her passing.
His party is leading a 10-party alliance. The BNP has put forward candidates for 292 of the 300 seats, keeping the remaining constituencies for its coalition partners.
Its promises include building a Bangladesh where "terrorism, corruption, and discrimination are eliminated," capping the prime minister’s time in office to 10 years, and providing financial support for marginal and low-income families.
An 11-party alliance was also formed under Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, which was banned for years under Hasina. It is contesting 224 seats.
Shafiqur Rahman is the party’s leader.
The National Citizen Party (NCP), whose leaders led the "July Uprising" that deposed Hasina's government, is also a part of the alliance. It is contesting 30 seats.
The remaining seats are allocated to other coalition partners.
Jamaat has pledged support for young people in state leadership roles as well as judicial, education, and economic reforms.
According to a survey reported by national daily Prothom Alo, the BNP alliance may secure 44.1% of the vote, while the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance could follow close behind with 43.9%.
Some 1.7% of voters expressed support for the conservative Jatiya Party (JaPa), while 6.5% were undecided, according to a survey by the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy.
“Most reliable predictions show that a very narrow difference may turn out in the share of popularity among the two alliances,” Zakaria Polash, strategic coordinator of the Dhaka-based Communication and Research Foundation, told Anadolu.
The parties need to secure 151 seats for a governing majority.
- Top issues
Voters are heading to the polls with the 2024 mass uprising, financial pressures, and corruption foremost in their minds.
The key issue shaping public aspirations is the need to rebuild the country so that citizens can live with dignity and peace, which suffered during Hasina's years in office, said Polash.
There is a strong demand for job creation, particularly for the country’s 45.9 million strong youth population, as well as for decisive action to curb corruption and money laundering, he said.
“The party that is promising better arrangements of curbing corruption will gain higher acceptance,” said Polash.
Bangladesh in January had overall inflation of 8.58%.
- Reform referendum
Alongside the election, a referendum will be held asking voters to approve or reject the “July Charter,” a sweeping reform blueprint drafted by the interim government’s National Consensus Commission.
The charter contains more than 80 proposals aimed at overhauling governance, including term limits for the prime minister, expanded presidential powers, protecting judicial independence, increasing women’s representation, and broader fundamental rights, according to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.
Voter approval would require the newly elected parliament to implement the reforms within a fixed timeframe (180 working days or 270 full days), while rejection at the polls would leave their adoption to the government’s discretion.
The charter was endorsed by 24 political parties last October, though some provisions remain contentious.
- Towards the future
Beyond its symbolic importance after the uprising, the election represents a breath of fresh air for Bangladesh’s future domestic and foreign policy trajectory.
In the short term, the election itself “is the biggest achievement of the country’s reforms, as through this, the country is moving towards a democratic transition,” said Polash.
Over the longer run, “this election is clearly leading the country towards a strategic paradigm shift both internally and externally,” he added.
The shift is likely to prompt a reassessment of Bangladesh’s international alignments, encouraging regional powers to recalibrate their approach towards a way that prioritizes the Bangladeshi people rather than “cherry-picking any political groups to gain their own interests,” Polash said.
“Whichever party or alliance wins the election, they will be under significant pressure to prioritize the national interests, while dealing with diplomatic affairs with external powers as there will be strong opposition inside the country,” he said.