By Beyza Binnur Donmez
GENEVA (AA) - The International Labour Organization (ILO) on Wednesday slashed its global employment forecast for 2025, warning that mounting geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions are key factors slowing economic growth and threatening labor markets worldwide.
The ILO now expects 53 million new jobs to be created this year, down from the 60 million projected earlier, according to its May update of the World Employment and Social Outlook.
This revision lowers global employment growth from 1.7% to 1.5%, as global GDP growth is revised to 2.8%, down from the earlier estimate of 3.2%.
"We know that the global economy is growing at a slower pace than we had anticipated it would," ILO Director-General Gilbert Houngbo said.
“Our report now tells us that if geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions continue, and if we do not address fundamental questions that are reshaping the world of work, then they will most certainly have negative ripple effects on labor markets worldwide.”
The ILO highlighted that around 84 million jobs in 71 countries depend on US consumer demand. "These jobs – and the incomes they support – are now increasingly at risk of disruption due to elevated trade tensions,” he said.
While the Asia-Pacific region accounts for 56 million of these jobs, the report said Canada and Mexico face the highest share of exposure, with 17.1% of their jobs at risk.
It also warned of deepening inequality, noting that the global labor income share has fallen from 53.0% in 2014 to 52.4% in 2024.
"Had this share remained unchanged, labour income globally would have been $1 trillion higher," the report noted.
“The findings of this report on the employment landscape are sobering, but they can also act as a roadmap for the creation of decent jobs,” Houngbo said. “We can make a difference … but we must do so with urgency, ambition and solidarity.”