By Sevgi Ceren Gokkoyun, Dilara Zengin, and Emir Yildirim
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (AA) - US President Donald Trump’s doubling tariffs on India from 25% to 50% because of New Delhi’s oil purchases from Russia has put $87 billion in Indian exports to the US at risk.
Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods exported to the US due to directly or indirectly buying oil from Moscow. It took effect Wednesday, bringing the total rate, including reciprocal tariffs, to 50% for some products.
The US-India total trade in goods reached $129 billion last year, according to data from the US Department of Commerce.
The US imported $87.4 billion worth of Indian exports, while India imported $41.6 billion worth of American exports, revealing a trade deficit of $45.8 billion for the US.
The US imports from India totaled $56.3 billion from January-June 2025, while India imported US goods worth $22.1 billion, data showed.
The US mainly imported electrical machinery and equipment, pharmaceuticals, precious stones and metals, nuclear reactors and nuclear machinery, organic chemicals, mineral fuels, textiles and products made out of iron or steel.
- Only 30% of Indian exports to US exempt from tariffs
Trump’s tariffs on India are one of the most significant trade shocks the country has experienced in recent years, according to a report by New Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative.
India’s $60.2 billion in exports to the US will be affected by tariffs, mostly made up of textiles, jewelry and shrimp.
These most at-risk sectors will face sharp declines in competitiveness and employment.
Labor-intensive sectors in India are bracing for a 70% drop in exports, while tariff-exempt products only account for 30% of exports to the US.
Pharmaceutical drugs, application programming interfaces (APIs) and electronic products come to the fore in duty-free exports to the US, while more than half of the products unaffected by tariffs are medicine.
- Tariffs to slow India’s economic growth, while other countries may replace India in some sectors
The 25% additional tariffs that took effect Wednesday are expected to decrease India’s exports, reducing the figure by around $37 billion to $49.6 billion, while the Indian economy’s growth rate is expected to slow from 6.5% to 5.6%.
The US tariffs will lead to gains for India’s rivals, said the report. China, Vietnam and Mexico will replace India in key sectors, while Türkiye could take up the market share in the carpet business with the US.
Analysts from S&P Global said around 70% of India’s exports are at risk, according to a recent report.
Indian exporters are in a rush to complete shipments before the effect of tariffs hampers their efforts, actively seeking alternative markets in China, Japan and the UK.
India’s agricultural products made up around 5% of trade with the US last year, coming to the fore as one of the sectors most affected by tariffs.
India’s seafood sector is the largest in agricultural trade with the US, as India exports 40% of its shrimp to America.
The US’ additional tariffs risk reducing India’s export volume and weakening its cost advantage, which will be eroded to countries like Ecuador, Vietnam, and Indonesia, which will then have the upper hand in the seafood sector.
Pakistan, India’s long-time rival, is expected to reallocate export volumes to meet US demand, while India’s basmati rice exports to Europe are expected to increase.