Sudan heading to escalation after Hamdok resignation

By Adel Abdul Rahim

KHARTOUM, Sudan (AA) – Following a protracted political deadlock and nationwide pro-democracy protests, Sudan’s transitional prime minister submitted his resignation this weekend.

In a televised address, Abdalla Hamdok admitted that partnership between the military and the civilian leadership had failed to lead to transition and establishment of the basis for civilian rule and democratic transformation.

“I accepted the post of prime minister in August 2019 based on the constitutional declaration and political consensus between the military and civilian components, a model that I commended at several events. But it failed to continue with the same harmony when it began,” Hamdok said in a televised statement.

Hours before his resignation, Sudanese security forces shot dead three protesters in the capital Khartoum, bringing the death toll to 57 since protests demanding civilian rule began on Oct. 25, according to medics.

Sudan has been in turmoil since Oct. 25, 2021 when the Sudanese military dismissed Hamdok's transitional government and declared a state of emergency.

Hamdok, however, was reinstated on Nov. 21 last year under an agreement with army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, in a move rejected by Sudanese political forces as an “attempt to legitimize the coup."

The 14-point agreement stipulated that a 2019 political declaration will be the basis for transition in Sudan and that elections will be held in 2023 as scheduled. It also provided for the prime minister to form a “technocrat Cabinet”.

Observers opine that Hamdok’s resignation will trigger a bigger wave of demonstrations across the crisis-hit country.

In his resignation speech, Hamdok said he tried his “best” to prevent the country from “sliding into a disaster”, but warned that Sudan is “currently passing through a dangerous turning point that may threaten its survival.”

Before the military takeover, Sudan was administered by a sovereign council of military led by al-Burhan and civilian officials overseeing the transition period until elections in 2023, as part of a precarious power-sharing pact between the military and the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition.

- Foggy scene

Political analyst Abdel Hamid Awad finds it hard for anyone to predict what will happen in Sudan following Hamdok's resignation.

“It opens the door to all possibilities, and no one has the ability to determine what will happen in the coming days,” he told Anadolu Agency. “The scene is foggy."

While he supports Hamdok’s decision to resign, he said the political deal between the resigned premier and the military was itself a mistake in the first place.

Now that Hamdok has resigned, Awad is worried that the military will have “more control” over the transitional authority.

He expects the military component to announce a caretaker government or hold elections.

“Another possibility,” he said, “is that protests will grow further and force the military leadership to step down or at least make concessions."

- International isolation

For Omar al-Farouq, a political analyst, Hamdok’s mistake was to sign the political deal with al-Burhan “unilaterally”, which cost him his “most important advantage, which is teamwork during his rule."

"Things in the country will move towards more instability,” al-Farouq expected.

“The next confrontation between the people and the military will be led by al-Burhan, and if the latter suppresses the protests once and for all, Sudan will return to the square of isolation and international sanctions."

He opines that it would be difficult for al-Burhan to suppress the protests, since most of the demonstrators are young people who are “convinced that their future lies solely in a democratic country.”

“Defeating them (the youth) will be impossible at the present time,” he said.

- Civilians vs military

Youssef Hamad, a political analyst, argues that Hamdok's resignation will “not have a significant impact on the political scene.”

Speaking to Anadolu Agency, Hamad said the resigned premier became “part of the October 25 coup when he signed the political agreement with al-Burhan."

According to the analyst, Hamdok’s signing of the political deal provided “cover for the military component in front of the street movement and in the face of the international community that supports democratic rule.”

He continued, “With his departure, this cover has disappeared, and the confrontation will now directly be between the people and the military."

Hamad expects the nationwide protests to escalate, which will force the military to “turn to more repression”, which may “complicate the scene."

Hamad, however, thinks that civilians are disadvantaged about confronting the military because they lack the political forces among them, since they were “demonized by the military and supporters of the former regime (of Omar al-Bashir).

He singled out the FCC to step up “to create a political balance that achieves the desires of the people and the stability of the country."

*Writing by Ibrahim Mukhtar in Ankara