Tight races in New Jersey, Virginia, New York ahead of Tuesday elections

By Merve Berker

Key election races in the US states of New Jersey and Virginia, as well as in New York City, remain highly competitive ahead of Tuesday’s elections, with Democrats holding slim leads and final polls indicating tightening margins, media reports said on Sunday.

In New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, a new AtlasIntel poll conducted on Oct. 25-30 shows Democrat Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by just 0.9 percentage points, 50.2% to 49.3%, within the 2-point margin of error, according to News Talk 780 KOH.

The survey, based on responses from over 1,600 likely voters, highlights a nearly even split in the Garden State.

Former US President Barack Obama appeared at a Nov. 1 rally for Sherrill, underlining the race’s importance for Democrats.

Democrats are slightly outperforming their 2024 benchmarks in early voting.

CNN reported that Democratic mail-in ballot returns are outpacing Republicans by over 41 points, compared to a 39-point lead at the same stage last year, News Talk 780 KOH reported.

In Virginia, Governor Abigail Spanberger appears poised for reelection.

A Hill/Emerson poll gives the Democrat a 56% to 44% lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. However, the state’s attorney general race remains close, with Democrat Jerra Jones polling at 51% against incumbent Jason Miyares’ 49%.

Early voting trends in Virginia also show an increase in Democratic engagement compared to 2024, though party officials caution that past elections have seen major shifts on Election Day.

In New York City’s mayoral race, AtlasIntel shows incumbent Zohran Mamdani leading former Governor Andrew Cuomo 41% to 34%, with Republican Curtis Sliwa at 24%.

The 7-point margin has narrowed since earlier polling, largely due to Cuomo gaining support among older, moderate Democrats.

CNN analysis found higher turnout among older voters than in the primaries, though younger voter participation has also increased, suggesting Mamdani’s base may be reenergizing, according to News Talk 780 KOH.

While early-voting trends hint at slight Democratic momentum, analysts urge caution, emphasizing that high Election Day turnout could reshape any of the races.