US risks 1st population decline in 2026 due to Trump immigration policy: Report

By Kanyshai Butun

ISTANBUL (AA) - The US could face its first population decline as early as 2026, decades sooner than previously projected, largely due to a sharp drop in immigration under President Donald Trump’s policies, Bloomberg reported Friday.

The US Census Bureau said in 2023 that population growth was expected to level off around 2081. However, experts cited by Bloomberg now say the turning point could arrive much earlier, potentially as early as 2026.

In 2025, the US population grew by just 0.5%, or about 1.8 million people, marking the slowest growth rate since the pandemic, according to Census Bureau data.

The slowdown has been driven mainly by a steep decline in net international migration, which fell from 2.7 million to 1.3 million between 2024 and 2025, the bureau said.

Researchers from the American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution said the US recorded a net decline in its immigrant population ranging from 10,000 to 295,000 during 2025.

They estimate that net immigration in 2026 could range from a gain of 185,000 people to a loss of as many as 925,000.

If the latter scenario materializes, the US population would shrink by more than 400,000 people, a decline not recorded since 1970, the researchers said.

“We could be at around zero or negative on population,” said Tara Watson, director of the Brookings Center for Economic Security and Opportunity and a co-author of the study.

Experts cited in the report said Trump’s immigration policies are sharply reducing net migration and accelerating a population decline that had previously been expected to occur decades later.