Will war in Yemen come to end?

By Shukri Hussein

SANAA, Yemen (AA) – Optimism is running high about reaching a peace agreement between Yemen’s warring rivals to end the 9-year deadly conflict in the country.

On Saturday, Saudi and Omani delegations arrived in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, for talks with Houthi rebels on resolving the conflict.

The Yemeni government also said it has agreed with Houthi rebels to extend their cease-fire from six months to one year. The deal is expected to be announced in the coming days.

According to a government official, the deal will include increasing the number of flights to Sanaa airport, resuming oil exports from Yemeni ports, opening roads in the central Taiz province, releasing all prisoners and transporting goods directly to the port of Aden.

Yemen has been engulfed by violence and instability since 2014, when Iranian-aligned Houthi rebels captured much of the country, including Sanaa.

A UN-brokered cease-fire between the warring rivals expired on Oct. 2,2022, with the Yemeni government and rebels failing to extend the deal amid accusations of launching attacks against each other.

- Cautious optimism

A government official said conditions are favorable now for holding peace talks to reach a political settlement to the conflict in Yemen.

“Efforts made by regional and international stakeholders and willingness of the legitimate government to achieve peace have paved the way for ending the war,” the official told Anadolu on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

He, however, sounded the alarm on the failure of Houthi rebels to respect previous agreements. “This would be a real obstacle to peace,” he added.

Last month, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced the resumption of their diplomatic relations following talks mediated by China, raising hope of settling the raging conflict in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia is a main backer of the Yemeni government, while Iran supports Houthi rebels.

Last week, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) said time was ripe for reaching a political solution to the conflict in Yemen.

- Critical time

On April 2, UN envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, warned that the war-torn country was facing a critical time, calling for a permanent end to the conflict.

“Yemen is going through a very important juncture that puts the country on the cusp of a new phase,” Yemeni political analyst Yassin al-Tamimi told Anadolu.

“Yemen may witness the end of the military involvement of the Saudi-led coalition,” he added.

In 2015, Saudi Arabia and a group of Gulf allies joined the war in Yemen in support of the Yemeni government to roll back military gains of the rebels.

Al-Tamimi, however, said that indications show that any political settlement “will not guarantee the return of the Yemeni state and the absence of threats on the Yemeni scene.”

Ahmed Naji, a senior analyst on Yemen at the International Crisis Group in Brussels, said the current peace efforts in Yemen “are the result of progress made during talks between the Saudis and Houthis during the last period.”

“The talks were undoubtedly accelerated by the return of diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran,” he added.

“Any political steps towards dealing with the war in Yemen are in the right direction, especially since military approaches have proven futile in the past years,” Naji noted.

“It is important to realize that the complexities of war require real solutions to the roots of the conflict and the abandonment of exclusion and acquisition by the war parties,” he added.

- Doubts

Ali al-Dahab, an expert in military and security affairs, opines that an expected 6-month cease-fire between Yemen’s warring rivals “will not be sufficient for accomplishing many tasks.”

“It is clear that the two parties do not have real intentions to bring about peace, especially the Houthi group, as its ideological and political doctrine differs greatly from the overall political conflicts that took place in Yemen throughout its history,” he said.

“The Houthis believe that power belong to them only,” al-Dahab added.

The analyst insisted that “whenever Houthi group signs an agreement, it quickly breaks its promises.”

“The current talk about a comprehensive and sustainable agreement in Yemen seems premature, given the number of obstacles and difficulties that will face the implementation of the cease-fire."

*Ikram Kouachi contributed to this report.