Türkiye's role in regional energy security will increase significantly: Analyst

By Narges Rezaei

ISTANBUL (AA) - Following the tripartite summit of the heads of states of Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan in the city of Turkmenbashi on December 14, which was aimed at boosting cooperation in the field of energy, some energy analysts assessed it as a sign of "Türkiye's increasing role in energy trade" and examined the country's situation in energy equations.

In this regard, Dr. Omid Shokri, a senior researcher at George Mason University and an energy security analyst, in an interview with an Anadolu Agency reporter, evaluated Türkiye's position and the situation in energy trade and stated that the country will most likely be the main candidate to become an energy hub over the next decade.

He further said that if Turkmenistan's gas reaches Türkiye, the role of Türkiye as a transit country in regional energy security and Europe's regional security will increase significantly. Türkiye itself can import gas from various sources and Turkmenistan's gas will reduce the share of Iran's gas in the Turkish energy market in the future.

- Turkish energy market allows energy-producing countries to enter the European market

Shokri stated that Türkiye's energy market is a prelude to the entry of energy-producing countries into the European market. If the European Union really wants to receive gas from Turkmenistan, it should make economic investments and show its political support for Türkiye and Turkmenistan in the face of geopolitical threats, he said.

If the United States wants to reduce the dependence of its European allies on Russian gas, it should provide Türkiye and Turkmenistan with political and economic support in the face of geopolitical risks, by which I mean Iran and Russia, the energy strategist hastened to add.

Shokri further said that considering the Turkish energy market is a prelude to the entry of energy-producing countries into the European market, there is a lot of competition between the countries in the region to maintain and increase their share of the Turkish energy market.

Türkiye is presently a country through which many gas and oil pipelines pass and it's a transit point. If the country makes investments to provide the necessary conditions – and the Turkish government has shown it's determined to make those investments - in the next decade, the ground will be prepared for making Turkey an energy hub, Shokri said.

He added that the most important of these conditions are liberalizing the energy market, boosting investment in infrastructure, increasing gas storage facilities, LNG, increasing refining capacity and increasing the number of pipelines.

- Türkiye will most likely be the main candidate to become an energy hub

The energy strategist said becoming an energy hub is a process, and most countries in the region, the Mediterranean Sea, Central Asia, and even Iran want to become an energy hub. This process, however, takes time. Most of these countries, even Iran, do not have the necessary conditions to become an energy hub. But Türkiye, he asserted, has shown that it can take serious steps with the support of government and private companies, and if the conditions are met, the country can become the main candidate for the regional energy trade center in the next decade.

"There is the chance and Türkiye can take it. If this process goes forward as planned, Türkiye will most likely be the main candidate to become an energy hub in the next decade," Shokri noted.

- Türkiye has paid special attention to diversifying its energy resources

The senior researcher at George Mason University further said that while Türkiye has paid special attention to diversifying its energy resources in the last two decades, the share of renewable energy in the country's energy portfolio is increasing each year. Gas from the Sakarya field (in the Black Sea) is supposed to enter the national gas network of Türkiye starting in March, and considering Akkuyu nuclear power plant and all other factors; we see a good situation in this regard, he asserted.

Shokri further pointed out that Türkiye is one of the main destinations for Iran's natural gas exports, but considering the current Iran-Turkiye gas export contract, which ends in 2026, and the lack of outcome in negotiations to extend the contract until last November shows that Iran's share of natural gas in Türkiye is facing serious challenges. Meanwhile, Iran itself is facing an energy crisis and cannot supply the natural gas required by its industrial units.

In the end, the energy strategist said if all geopolitical risks for the transfer of Turkmenistan's gas to Türkiye are eliminated and financial resources required for the construction of a pipeline from the Caspian Sea bed are provided, the natural gas of Turkmenistan will be transferred to Türkiye in the medium term, which will dramatically increase its role as a transit country in the energy security of the region and regional security of Europe.

Sardar Berdimuhamedov, the president of Turkmenistan, told the tripartite meeting of the leaders of Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan in the city of Turkmenbashi that together with Türkiye and Azerbaijan, his country "seeks to create a coordinated and multifaceted system for transferring energy resources to world markets."

* Writing by Syed Zafar Mehdi