UK sees double risk of hot summer, increased likelihood of heatwaves

By Nuran Erkul

LONDON (AA) - The UK has a more than double chance of a hot summer this year, with an increased likelihood of heatwaves, according to the country’s meteorological agency.

The Met Office in an email told Anadolu that the risk of June, July and August getting warmer is more than twice the normal levels, as the country already saw its hottest day of the year so far with temperatures soaring above 32.2 degrees Celsius (90 Fahrenheit) on June 10.

"The increase in the likelihood of hotter than normal conditions is consistent with our warming climate and while this does not necessarily mean heatwaves will occur, it does increase the likelihood of these compared to normal," it said.

The meteorological agency added that the north of the country could see a higher possibility of drier-than-normal conditions, while the south wetter-than-normal.

"Differences in rainfall locally could be large, consistent with the more showery nature of summer rainfall. With a greater likelihood of weather coming from the continent, there is an increased chance of thunderstorms, with these possible across the whole country, but perhaps more prevalent for southern areas," the Met Office said.

The agency said it does not forecast last year's highest-ever temperature record of 40.3 C to be breached this time, though high temperatures could be the norm.

- 'Not prepared'

The Place-Based Climate Action Network (PCAN) in a recent report found that stakeholders from local authorities, first responders, utility companies and the transport sector are concerned that the country is not ready to respond to extreme heatwaves this summer.

Last year's extreme heat periods led to 2,803 excess deaths among those aged 65 years and over, and 3,271 excess deaths among all, the research showed.

The research participants said the UK is "not prepared to manage future extreme heat events, particularly if these were to occur more frequently at the same magnitude and duration, or if they were less frequent but of greater magnitude than the 2022 heatwaves".

Heatwaves are becoming "more normal" across the globe as the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) latest publication forecast that the annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 to be between 1.1 C and 1.8 C degrees higher than the average from 1850-1900.

The chance of global temperature exceeding 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year between this period is now 66%, according to the WMO.