Washington’s sanctions may affect Europe more than US, warns expert

By Handan Kazanci

ANTALYA, Turkiye (AA) – US sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine may have more of an impact on Europe than the US, according to a senior energy expert.

“My concern is that the American sanctions are going to push to have more effects on Europe rather than the United States,” Harry Tzimitras, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo-PRIO Cyprus Centre, told Anadolu Agency on the sidelines of the weekend's Antalya Diplomacy Forum.

Last week both the US and UK hit Russia with sanctions by banning oil and gas imports, while EU countries heavily dependent on Russian gas have been trying to find alternative sources in response to Moscow’s war on Ukraine.

According to Tzimitras, who is also a senior fellow at the US-based Atlantic Council, Europe has had much greater dependence on Russian gas.

“So obviously American sanctions are going to mainly affect the European Union and independent countries within the EU, because some of them have a greater exposure to the dependency on Russian gas,” he explained.

- 'Perfect relationship on energy' during Cold War

For a long time, Tzimitras said, a lot of the planning on alternate energy sources was delayed due to good relations with Russia. “I remind you that for 50 years throughout the Cold War, Europe and Russia had a perfect relationship on energy,” he said.

Tzimitras said that up to now there was "no reason to think differently."

According to Tzimitras, at the moment, "we need to deal with the immediate consequences of supply."

“I think the most immediate consequence if you like is that we would have to delay the climate (change) targets that we have set in Europe,” he added.

Last November, countries promised at the COP26 climate meeting to keep the global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

On the proposed EastMed gas pipeline to ferry Israeli fuel from the Eastern Mediterranean to Greece, Tzimitras said discussions of the pipeline have been ongoing since 2015, adding: “It was prioritized mainly for political reasons.”

“I think that for those who dealt with energy until now – prospects and given the technical, the financial challenges – might not necessarily have led us to believe that it would materialize one day.

“But it was a very good platform for reconciliation between a number of the littoral states in the Eastern Mediterranean,” he said.

“This is now becoming part of the discussion again within a broader framework of a discussion on European energy security and independence,” he added.

“It's not the time to re-prioritize this specific project because it's a far cry from materialization through all the challenges that are described in the technical and financial fields,” he said.

In January the US said it was withdrawing support from the project, which Ankara says is unworkable as it tries to bypass Turkiye.

- ‘Energy might offer the platform for reconciliation needed’

According to Tzimitras, renewables should be focused on as sources that can diversify the political conflicts in the region.

The US' announcing it would not support the EastMed gas pipeline should come as no surprise, he added. “This has been a process of a longer period of time. If the Ukrainian crisis had happened a little bit before, maybe the announcement would not have been in place.”

Tzimitras said that this was a discussion before the Ukrainian crisis because the US is a major exporter of in particular LNG and this has been part of the EU’s energy needs.

“The discussion has been primarily concerned with to what extent gas would be a transitional fuel until renewables kick in, until the sustainable development targets can be met,” he said. “So obviously, now the discussion will come back to a large degree on to what extent American gas can play a role in European energy security.”

According to Tzimitras, it is not an easy discussion. “Because it is tied up to a number of other things on the side … the technical challenges, the finances of it, but I think it's going to come back in a forceful way, to see to what extent European capitalize on US gas.”

“It's not an automatic answer. I think we need to (zoom out to) like 30,000 feet and look at all the options available to us and be very pragmatic about it,” he said. “Because the crisis in Ukraine might be a long one, but it might very well be a shorter one and energy might offer the platform for reconciliation needed.”

- Europeans ‘more pragmatic’

Tzimitras said that the Europeans are at the core of the debate and “more concerned” as well as “affected” from any sanctions by themselves, but also of the US.

“That's why we see them being much more pragmatic about it, much more reserved, in passing judgment quickly, simply because the consequences are going to be immediate, engraved to them,” he added.

Noting the environmental considerations on energy, Tzimitras said: “This shock is greater for Europe, obviously I hear discussions of Europe able to diversify within the next two years.”

“It's not a matter of anything that can be done within a very short period of time to diversify from what has been going on for decades,” he said.

“We need to be pragmatic about it. It's important that Europe starts considering alternative modes,” he said.

“But this is not something that can happen tomorrow morning. It is tied up to political considerations, to economic considerations, technical ones,” he added. “So it's not something that can happen tomorrow.”

“Eastern Mediterranean gas is important in this respect, not only as an independent source of contributing to European energy security but more importantly to my mind, in serving as a platform for reconciliation between the regional states in the Eastern Mediterranean,” he said.

The three-day high-level diplomacy forum in the resort city of Antalya brought together participants from 75 countries, including 17 heads of state, 80 government ministers, and 39 representatives of international organizations. Anadolu Agency is the forum's global communications partner.